[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210952
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W and continues SW to near 02N22W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection within 180 nm both sides of
these boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida, to the Bay
of Campeche. An earlier low pressure associated with it in the
southwest Gulf has dissipated. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are located along and southeast of this front. A cold front has
moved off the Texas coast overnight, bringing fresh to strong NW
winds behind it. Between the two fronts, moderate mainly N winds
are occurring, with gentle to moderate SW winds to the southeast
of the stationary front. Seas are 2 to 4 ft.

The stationary front will transition into a cold front as the
secondary cold front moves through the northern Gulf. Fresh to
strong winds are expected offshore Texas behind this secondary
front. The low is forecast to lose its identity along the front
later this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
focused along and near the front today. Some of this activity may
produce strong gusty winds and rough seas. High pressure in its
wake will shift eastward through Sat night as a cold front reaches
eastern Texas. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop
over the NW Gulf Fri, shift to the central Gulf early Sat and
diminish by late Sat as the cold front moves across the NW Gulf
and central Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south-central Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds are noted with
seas of 4-7 ft. Overall, dry conditions prevail, except for
continued convection along the Mexican coast in association with a
surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
will diminish slightly late in the week as high pressure over
the central Atlantic shifts eastward, except near the coast of
Colombia where these winds will persist through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

To the W of 65W, a stationary front stretches from just S of
Bermuda to near Vero Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm of either side of this boundary, with isolated
strong convection south of Bermuda around 30N. To the east of the
front and N of 28N, fresh to strong SW winds are occurring.
Elsewhere to the south and east, moderate southerly winds are
occurring. To the NW of the boundary, winds are light to gentle.
Seas average 3 to 6 ft.

The stationary front will transition back to a cold front later
today, and merge with a secondary front emerging off the SE U.S.
coast tonight. N of 28N, Some fresh to strong SW are possible
ahead of the first front, with some strong NW possible behind the
second front. The high pressure will shift eastward through Sat
night as a stronger cold front approaches the southeastern U.S.
coast. This front is expected to move across the NW and north-
central waters Sun and Sun night preceded by fresh to strong
southerly winds and possible thunderstorms.

E of 65W, high pressure of 1024 mb centered near 27N38W dominates
the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh
trades are noted from 10N-20N between the coast of west Africa
and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. The high
pressure will weaken by late Wed, and will be replaced by another
high pressure system located over the central Atlantic by Wed
night.

$$
KONARIK
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