[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180936
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N17W to 02N30W to 00N43W.  Scattered moderate
convection is within 220 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is located from near Cedar Key, Florida, to
26N90W to just south of Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near gale
force winds are occurring north of this boundary offshore the
Mexican coast. These strong winds will prevail into tonight, and
are being enhanced by weak low pressure of 1008 mb that has
developed overnight near 21N93W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will also
persist through tonight. Conditions will improve Mon.

Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the NE Gulf to the
north of the stationary front and E of 90W. A cluster of
thunderstorms is also ongoing about 90 nm E of the Texas Mexico
border. North of the stationary boundary, and away from the
aforementioned Mexican coast, fresh to strong NE winds are
ongoing. Elsewhere, mainly moderate southerly winds prevail.

For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary into
mid week, before reinforcing cool and dry air pushes the front
into the far SE Gulf Wed into Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough that extends W into the eastern Pacific continues west to
the coast of Colombia along 10N. Scattered moderate convection is
ongoing within 90 nm either side of this trough. Deep layer dry
air is elsewhere, favoring fair weather conditions. The pressure
gradient between higher pressure in the central Atlantic and lower
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is allowing for fresh to locally
trade winds over the central Caribbean, including the waters
between Jamaica and Cuba and within the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are
generally 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will persist north of
central Honduras into tonight, between the ridge and lower
pressure over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The high will shift
east ahead of a weak front moving through the Gulf allowing trade
winds to increase over mainly the south central Caribbean early
this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 32N65W roughly along 30N to near
Saint Augustine, Florida. W of 70W along and N of this boundary,
scattered moderate convection is occurring, otherwise generally
dry conditions are located over the basin. To the E of 70W to
around 50W, an area south of the front and S of a weak low
pressure near Bermuda, fresh to locally strong SW winds are
occurring.

Broad surface ridging is across the remainder Atlantic waters,
supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N.
Mainly fresh NE to E winds over the West Africa adjacent waters
and over the central tropical waters. Otherwise, a dissipating
surface trough is noted from 31N35W to 25N50W. A few showers and
thunderstorms exist within 60 nm of this boundary. Seas throughout
the basin are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will remain nearly in
place into mid week, as high pressure dominates the SE Part of the
basin. Looking ahead, as the ridge shifts east by Wed, a slightly
strong frontal boundary will move off the SE U.S. coast by Thu.

$$
KONARIK
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