[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains
in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St.
Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano currently is undergoing
light emissions from its summit. It is possible that ash that was
released earlier may be reaching the surface of the ocean, and
low-level visibility may be reduced. Mariners who are transiting
the waters under the emitted ash advisory should exercise caution.
Mariners who encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris,
are urged to report the observation to the National Hurricane
Center, by calling 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea near 10N14W to 05N22W to 02N30W, where overnight
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to
02N37W and to 01N44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 24W-30W
and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 30W-33W. Broken to overcast
low clouds are along and inland the Texas coastal plains. Patches
of fog, some dense, are over the NW Gulf.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 29N86W. Broad
surface anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf of Mexico north of about
24N and east of 92W. Broken to overcast low clouds are along and
inland the Texas coastal plains. Patches of fog, some dense, are
over the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward through
Wed in response to an approaching cold front. The cold front will
move across the northern Gulf Wed night, reach from north-central
Florida to southern Texas Thu and become stationary and weaken
through Fri night. Mainly moderate northeast to east winds will
follow in behind the front. A stronger cold front is expected to
move over the NW Gulf late Fri night, and reach from north-central
Florida to the west- central Gulf by late Sat. Fresh to strong
northeast winds will follow in behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends from northwestern Colombia to the Colombia/Panama
border beyond 07N80W and into the eastern Pacific. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are near the trough over the waters of the
southwestern Caribbean and over sections of Costa Rica and
Panama. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over
central and eastern Honduras and over northern Nicaragua.

Scattered to broken low-level moving westward with the surface
to low-level easterly flow are over the rest of the sea. Isolated
may be possible with these clouds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N68W to across the central
Bahamas and to west-central Cuba. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, with scattered moderate convection are noted to the east
of the front from 27N to 32N between 55W-60W and within 90 nm of a
line from 28N60W to 26N65W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are seen elsewhere between 55W-67W and from 13N to 19N between
56W and the Leeward Islands.

A surface trough is along 31W from 23N to 32N. No significant
convection is occurring with this feature.

A 1017 mb high pressure center is west of the trough near 23N36W,
while a 1020 mb high pressure center is east of the same trough
near 25N22W. High pressure is present from 15N to 30W/31W between
31W-52W and east of the trough as well.

An Ashfall Advisory is in effect for La Soufriere Volcano on
the island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. Mariners transiting
the Tropical N Atlantic waters south of 15N between 43W-55W should
be aware of the possibility for the existence of volcanic ash.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
near 26N65W to the eastern Dominican Republic early this evening
and move east of the forecast waters early on Wed as weak high
pressure builds behind it, and as another cold front approaches
the far northwest waters. This second front will move across the
water N and NE of the Bahamas from late Wed night through Fri
night and become stationary along 28N over the western part of the
area Sat and Sat night. Fresh to strong southwest winds are
expected ahead of this front. Weak high pressure will build over
the area in the wake of the front.

$$
Aguirre
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