[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the
island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is currently undergoing
frequent eruptions. Volcanic ash may be reaching the ocean
surface and low level visibility may be reduced. Mariners
traveling within the area 18N39W to 08N40W to 10N50W to 15N62W
to 17N45W to 18N39W are urged to exercise caution, especially
west of 50W where the densest ash is being observed. If mariners
encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are
urged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center
by calling 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N42W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 01N to 05N between 33W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from South Florida to near 25N84W. A trough
extends from 25N85W to just west of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail N of 26N, with light to gentle winds
south of 26N. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range across much of the
Gulf waters, except 1-2 ft over the SW Gulf.

The cold front will exit the SE Gulf tonight. A new cold front
will enter the northern Gulf Wed. This front will reach from
north- central Florida to southern Texas Thu and become
stationary through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

A ridge extends from 1015 mb high pressure near 25N58W SW across
the northern Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient prevails across
the Caribbean waters. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted
over the Gulf of Honduras, with moderate to locally fresh winds
elsewhere across the Caribbean waters.

Moderate to fresh southeast winds will continue over the far NW
Caribbean through the period, pulsing to strong speeds in the
Gulf of Honduras. Pulses of strong NE to E winds are forecast at
night along Colombia coastal waters through Thu. Northerly winds
behind a cold front that will move over the Bahamas will funnel
across the Windward Passage Tue night through Wed night
supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds. Fresh NE winds are
also expected over southern Cuba adjacent waters. Elsewhere,
generally moderate to fresh east winds will change little through
Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

A cold front extends from 32N73W to south Florida. Moderate
winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail west of the front. Low pressure
of 1000 mb is centered near 33N65W, with high pressure of 1015 mb
centered near 25N58W. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting strong to near gale winds north of 27N
between 61W and 70W, with winds reaching gale force north of 32N.
Seas over this area are in the 8-10 ft range. A ridge extends
eastward from the high pressure to another area of high pressure
near 27N21W. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the
ridge, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere across
the discussion waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range N of 25N E
of 45W. Seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail elsewhere across the
discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong southwest winds N
of 27N and E of 70W will shift eastward this evening ahead of a
cold front that extends from near 32N73W to southern Florida.
The front will move east of the forecast waters on Wed morning as
weak high pressure builds behind it. Another cold front will
approach the far northwest waters. This front will move across
the water N and NE of the Bahamas from late Wed night through Fri
night. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected ahead of
this front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the far NE
offshores will move E of the area early on Tue.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net