[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the
island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is undergoing frequent
eruptions. Satellite imagery shows the volcanic ash plume
spreading well to the east and northeast of St. Vincent, roughly
in an area from 10N-18N between 40W-62W, which includes Barbados.
Violent volcanic eruptions may occur suddenly without warning.
Volcanic ash may be reaching the ocean surface east northeast of
St. Vincent. Mariners should exercise caution, and report
volcanic ash or floating debris to the National Weather Service
by calling 305-229-4424.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends southward from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N22W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 01N30W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within
180 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure of 1009 mb has formed in the NE Gulf just S of the
Florida Panhandle. A cold front extends SW from this low to just
north of Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough resides in the western
Gulf from 25N92W to 21N97W. Another pre-frontal trough,
accompanied by strong to severe thundertorms, stretches from near
Fort Myers, Florida to 27N88W. Between the pre-frontal trough and
cold front, numerous thundertorms, some strong, are ongoing. Very
gusty wind to 45 kt and frequent lightning are hazards through
much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the through, fresh SW
winds prevail. North of the cold front, moderate to fresh mainly N
winds are occurring, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere in the
Gulf. Seas average 3 to 6 ft.

The cold front will move east, then stall out from central
Florida to the Bay of Campeche Mon, and dissipate by Mon night.
An upper- level trough will help generate scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf waters through this
evening. Some of this activity may contain frequent lightning and
strong gusty winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

The latest surface analysis depicts  a rather weak pressure
gradient across the basin. Fresh trades prevail over most of the
basin, while fresh to strong east-southeast winds in the Gulf of
Honduras as well as the Yucatan Channel. Mainly fair weather
conditions are in place across the basin. Wave heights are in the
3-6 ft range, except for slightly higher wave heights of 5-7 ft in
the central Caribbean area and within the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh southeast winds will continue over the
northwestern Caribbean through the period, while fresh to strong
east to southeast winds continue in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds
will pulse to strong speeds over a small area near the coast of
Colombia during the afternoons and at night through Wed.
Elsewhere, generally moderate to fresh east winds will change
little through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on an Ashfall
Advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

A surface trough extends from 31N75W to near West Palm Beach,
Florida. Along and to the northwest of this trough, numerous
strong thunderstorms are occurring. These thunderstorms will bring
a threat of frequent lightning and wind gusts to 50 kts for areas
W of 72W and N of 24N, including the NW Bahamas and off the east
coast of Florida. Ahead of the trough, N of 23N and E of 65W,
fresh SW winds are occurring.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong southerly winds east of
Florida will shift eastward through Mon ahead of a cold front
that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight. The front
will reach from near 31N75W to east-central Florida early Mon,
from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba
Mon evening and the southeast waters by late Tue. The front will
move east of the forecast waters on Wed as weak high pressure
builds in behind it. Another cold front is expected to cross the
northwest and north- central waters on Tue. Fresh to strong
southwest winds are expected to precede this front. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are
expected to push off the Florida coast through this evening.

Farther east, a large area of fresh to strong west winds
associated with a low pressure system north of our discussion area
continues to affect waters north of 27N between 27W-45W. Seas are
11-17 ft in this area. Northerly swell from this system, with
seas in excess of 8 ft, is affecting most of the central Atlantic
north of 21N between 26W-60W. South of the low, weak surface
trough is analyzed from 28N37W to 18N60W. Another trough is noted
from 28N30W to 17N50W. To the E of 45W, scattered moderate
convection exists along both of these troughs. High pressure
ridging and gentle anticyclonic flow dominates the waters both
west and east of the troughs.

$$
KONARIK
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