[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to
02N34W to 03N43W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 30 to 45 nm of the ITCZ axis between 19W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered east of the Bahamas near 26N72W is
supporting southerly flow across the basin. Scatterometer data
shows moderate SE to S winds in the central Gulf. A weak surface
trough along the northern Gulf coast from Alabama to Louisiana is
triggering scattered moderate to strong convection north of 28N
between between 83W and 90W. A surface trough is analyzed along
the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula from 22N90W to inland near
18N91W. No significant shower activity is associated with this
trough. Seas are 3 to 4 across the Gulf of Mexico.

Some areas of dense fog are possible this morning in the coastal
waters of Texas. Fresh southerly winds will prevail across most
of the basin through Sat. A weak cold front will move into the NW
Gulf on Sat, then stall and weaken from the Florida panhandle to
northern Mexico Sun night. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
associated with the front are possible in the NE Gulf Sat night
and Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows increased cloudiness across most of the
Caribbean. A surface trough is analyzed along 10N between Lake
Maracaibo in northern Venezuela and Costa Rica. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along this boundary. Mid
and upper level cloudiness associated with this convection covers
a large portion of the region. Scatterometer data this morning
shows moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central Caribbean
between 70W and 75W, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the
Gulf of Honduras, as well as through the Windward Passage. Seas
are 3 to 5 ft across the entire basin.

Weak high pressure centered east of the Bahamas near 26N72W will
gradually shift eastward through Mon. Fresh SE winds are expected
across the NW Caribbean this weekend. Fresh E winds and building
seas are expected across the central Caribbean this weekend.
Little significant change is expected elsewhere through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1018 mb high pressure is centered east of the NW Bahamas near
26N72W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail around the
high, north of 23N and west of 70W. A large occluded gale-force
low pressure system is centered north of the discussion waters
near 38N52W, covering much of the northern waters between 35W and
65W. A cold front associated with the low enters the discussion
waters near 32N42W and extends to near 26N48W. Most of the shower
activity from this low is north of 30N. ASCAT data this morning
shows 20 to 30 kt winds north of 26N between 44W and 64W. Large
seas associated with this low pressure system are 8-15 ft, north
of 22N between 40W and 65W. This low will linger north of the area
through Sat night, then accelerate to the east-northeast Sun and
Mon. Large NW to N swell will continue across the N and NE
forecast waters through late Sun.

The weak high pressure centered east of the Bahamas will slowly
shift eastward through Mon. A cold front will move E of northern
Florida on Mon, and extend from 30N65W to 23N78W on Tue.

$$
Mundell
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