[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0420 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 02N33W to
03N43W to 02N51W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from
04N-06N between 16W-22W and from 00N-05N between 27W-36W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen within
180 nm of the coast of Brazil from 03S-04N between 42W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging extends from the western Atlantic, across
Florida and into the west-central Gulf of Mexico. As a result,
the open waters of the Gulf are mostly dry and free of any
precipitation. However, a few clusters of showers and tstorms
prevail over adjacent land areas: one over east Texas, another
over the NW Yucatan Peninsula, and a third area over NE Mexico
near Tampico. In addition, NWS Doppler Radar shows isolated
showers off the coast of SE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
across most of the Gulf. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the
Gulf waters.

Some patchy areas of dense fog are possible this morning along
the coastal waters of Texas. Southerly wind speeds will increase
to fresh today and will prevail across most of the basin through
Sat. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat, then
stall and weaken from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico
Sun night. Widespread showers and tstorms associated with the
front are possible in the NE Gulf Sat night and Sun. Well ahead
of the front, scattered showers and tstorms are possible in the
NE Gulf this evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that the
southern Caribbean and adjacent land areas of northern South
America and Central America are moistening up. GOES-16 infrared
satellite imagery and lightning products as well as Caribbean
radars indicate that scattered moderate showers and isolated
tstorms cover the southwestern Caribbean Sea, particularly south
of 14N between 76W-84W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is seen inland over NE Colombia. Similar convection
is occurring near the border of Honduras and El Salvador. A
recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades in the south-central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, with fresh NE winds in the
Windward Passage. Mainly moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas
are in the 3-5 ft range across the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered east of the
Bahamas will gradually shift eastward through Mon. Fresh SE
winds are expected across the NW Caribbean this weekend. Fresh E
winds and building seas are expected across the central
Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W: 1018 mb high pressure is centered east of the NW
Bahamas near 27N74W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail
around the high between 70W-81W, from 23N-32N. Northerly swell
will continue moving through the waters east of 70W through this
weekend. The high pressure will gradually shift eastward through
Mon. A cold front will move E of northern Florida on Mon, and
extend from 30N65W to 23N78W on Tue. S-SW winds and seas will
increase offshore Florida this weekend ahead of this front.

East of 65W: A large gale force low is centered north of the
discussion waters, covering much of the northern Atlantic
waters. A cold front extending from the low enters the
discussion waters near 32N42W and extends southwest to near
28N47W, then continues as a dissipating cold front to 22N57W. A
surface trough is located from 22N50W to 16N58W. Scattered
moderate convection associated with the front is seen north of
28N between 40W-52W. Fresh to strong mainly westerly winds
extending southward from the low cover the forecast waters north
of 25N between 45W-65W. Seas over this area are in the 9-15 ft
range, highest north of 28N between 48W-58W. Expect this area of
high seas to persist during the next 24-48 hours as little
change is expected with the low. Farther east, a surface ridge
extends from 15N58W to a 1020 mb high near 24N29W to a 1019 mb
high near 29N25W to 31N14W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the highs and ridge axis.

$$
Hagen
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