[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082208
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N30W to
03N46W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N to 05N between 35W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Florida panhandle to to 28N91W.
A ridge of high pressure extends across the Gulf of Mexico south
of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
NE Gulf, where there is a tighter pressure gradient between the
ridge and surface trough. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf waters.

High pressure over the SW N Atlantic will gradually shift
eastward as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower
Mississippi Valley, then stalls over the northern Gulf this
weekend. Moderate return flow will increase to fresh to strong
speeds Fri night into Sat ahead of the front. The stalled front
is expected to linger over the northern Gulf into early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean. A
relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean
waters, where gentle to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the
3-5 ft range.

High pressure north of the basin will gradually shift eastward
through early next week. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and
building seas will develop by Fri night across the northwest
Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras through the Yucatan Channel.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds will develop over
the south-central Caribbean and south of Hispaniola this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large complex gale force low is centered north of the
discussion waters, covering much of the norther Atlantic waters.
A cold front extending from the low enters the discussion waters
near 32N43W and extends southwest to near 21N60W. An elongated
trough is located east of the front, from 26N41W to 16N60W into
the Caribbean waters south of Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong winds
extending southward from the low cover the forecast waters north
of 26N between 48W- 65W, with near gale winds north of 31N. Seas
over this area are in the 8-15 ft range.

High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 27N72W. Farther east,
another high pressure center of 1018 mb is centered near 25N26W.
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the highs. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the forecast
waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range west of 73W, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, northerly swell will continue
moving through the waters east of 70W through this weekend. High
pressure centered near 27N72W will gradually shift eastward
through early next week. Winds and seas may increase offshore
Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front that will pass over
the southeastern U.S. and eventually move offshore early next
week.

$$
AL
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