[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0750 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N22W to 05N30W to
01N47W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N-04N between 11W-16W, from 01N-03N
between 17W-22W, from 03N-05N between 23W-27W, and from 01N-05N
between 31W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is in the northeast Gulf northwest-north of the
Tampa Bay, Florida area. Moderate to locally fresh return flow
prevails across the basin, except under the high, and also in the
western Gulf where the pressure gradient is slightly weaker.
Seas are 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf, and 3-5 ft in the
central and western Gulf. A cold front is inching its way from
eastern Texas to across the lower Mississippi Valley with an
intense line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it, currently
extending to just inland of the northern Gulf coastline. Areas of
fog are reported in the southern Texas coastal waters.

High pressure will gradually shift east as the cold front slowly
moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, stalling over the
northern Gulf by the weekend. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow
will prevail through the remainder of the week, increasing to
fresh to locally strong Fri night into Sat ahead of the front,
before diminishing late Sun with moderate easterly winds returning
through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad mid to upper level south-southwest flow covers the basin
which is advecting moisture across the region from the tropical
eastern Pacific Ocean. A surface trough extends from the eastern
Pacific Ocean to south of the Gulf of Panama to across northern
Colombia with clusters of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over central and northern Colombia. This convection
has frequent lightning with heavy rainfall also possible.

High pressure is located north of the basin. A fairly weak
pressure pattern prevails across the region with winds locally to
fresh in the lee of central and eastern Cuba, across the Windward
Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of northern Colombia.
Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere early this
morning. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range in the northwest and eastern
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the central Caribbean, locally to 6 ft.

High pressure north of the basin will continue to support fresh
winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, and the Windward
Passage through early today. As high pressure shifts east, winds
and seas will begin to diminish over the area. By Fri night, fresh
to strong E to SE winds and building seas will return across the
central and northwest Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras through
the Yucatan Channel with fresh to strong NE to E winds and
building seas develop south of Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad gale force low pressure system is located north of the
discussion waters and well northeast of Bermuda with associated
fresh to strong winds extending southward to 27N between 47W-66W
early this morning. A cold front wraps around the low and into the
area through 32N50W to 24N65W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible within 60-120 nm ahead of the front with higher
gusts in any convection. Large NW-N swell with seas in the 8-15 ft
range covers the waters from roughly north of 24N between 46W-69W,
highest north of 30N.

An elongated trough is located east of the front, from 32N41W to
22N50W to the vicinity of Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are ahead of the trough, while scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are extending from near Puerto Rico east-
northeast within 300 nm or so south of the trough and west of 50W.

High pressure is centered in the eastern Atlantic near 25N29W with
a ridge axis extending from near the Canary Islands through the
high center to just east of the Virgin Islands. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds are south of the ridge axis, except for fresh to
locally strong N-NE winds west of Africa to across the Cabo Verde
Islands. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range across the central and
eastern Atlantic outside of the influence of the low pressure
system mentioned above.

The trough will linger in the Atlantic to just north of Puerto
Rico today. Otherwise, high pressure east of the northern Bahamas
will prevail. Winds and seas may increase east of Florida this
weekend ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S. with
the front moving offshore early next week.

$$
Lewitsky
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