[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 08 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W, 02N20W
01N22W, 05N29W, 03N40W, 01N48W, to 02N50W near the coast of
Brazil.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 03N to 05N
between 33W and 42W, and from 02N to 04N between 49W and 53W in
Brazil and its coastal waters. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere, from 09N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico,
and the Atlantic Ocean from 72W westward. A surface ridge
extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1019 mb high pressure center that
is near 28N78W, to a NE Gulf of Mexico 1018 mb high pressure
center that is near 29N84W, to the lower Texas Gulf coast.

High pressure gradually will shift eastward, as a cold front
moves slowly through the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight,
before stalling in the northern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.
Mainly
moderate to fresh return flow will prevail through the week,
increasing to fresh to locally strong, from Friday night into
Saturday, ahead of the front, before diminishing late on Sunday,
with moderate easterly winds returning through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level SW wind flow covers the western half of the
Caribbean Sea. Some of the SW wind flow is associated with an
upper level ridge that extends from eastern Venezuela westward.
The rest of the upper level SW wind flow is moving from the
eastern Pacific Ocean, across Central America, and into the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the Caribbean
Sea to the west of the line that runs from south central coastal
Hispaniola to the coast of Panama along 80W.

A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, to the
Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is in parts of northern
Colombia and NW Venezuela, from 08N to 10N between the western
edges of Lake Maracaibo and 74W. Scattered moderate to strong is
in Colombia from 03N to 05N between 72W and 74W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere in Colombia,
within 160 nm to the south and southeast of the surface trough,
between 75W and 77W.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure to the north of the basin will continue to support
fresh winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, and the
Windward Passage, through early Thursday. As high pressure shifts
eastward, winds and seas will begin to diminish over the area.
By the weekend, strong E to SE winds and building seas will
return across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea from
the Gulf of Honduras through the Yucatan Channel, with fresh to
strong NE to E winds and building seas developing to the south
of Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N50W, to
30N52W, 27N60W, and to 26N66W. A dissipating stationary front
continues from 26N66W to 29N70W, to 31N72W. A stationary front
continues northwestward, from 31N72W to North Carolina.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are within 60
nm to 120 nm to the east of the cold front.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N78W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward from the dissipating stationary front westward.

A surface trough is along 30N42W 23N50W 20N60W, to the coastal
waters that are just to the north of Puerto Rico along 66W/67W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 27N northward between 40W and 46W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated rainshowers, are in the
Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean, from 15N to 25N between
40W and Puerto Rico.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N20W,
continuing to 28N24W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover
the area from 20N northward from 40W eastward. The comparatively
greatest amount of cloudiness and precipitation is from 26N
northward between 19W and 40W.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 24N30W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 12N
northward from 41W eastward.

The current surface trough will linger in the Atlantic Ocean, to
just to the north of Puerto Rico. Otherwise, high pressure east
of central Florida will prevail. The winds and the seas may
increase to the east of Florida this weekend, ahead of a cold
front moving into the southeastern U.S.,
with the front moving offshore early next week.

$$
mt/jl
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