[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071708
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N25W to the coast
of Brazil near 00N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N-07N between 15W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Buoys, platforms, and land-based observations are showing moderate
to fresh SE winds over the northwest Gulf and the coast of Texas,
between 1020 mb high pressure centered over northern Florida,
and 1005 mb low pressure centered over northeast Mexico and south
Texas. Fresh SE flow is also noted over the central Gulf, with
gentle to moderate SE flow elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the
western Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf. There some
areas of haze reported earlier over the northwest Gulf, but
visibilities are unrestricted currently. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted anywhere in the Gulf at this time.

For the forecast, the high pressure over Florida will gradually
shift east as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight, before stalling over the northern
Gulf by the end of the week. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow
will prevail through the week, increasing to fresh to locally
strong Fri night into Sat ahead of the front, before diminishing
late Sun with moderate easterly winds returning through early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer satellite data shows a small area of fresh
trade winds off the coast of northeast Colombia, fresh NE winds
in the Windward Passage, and gentle to moderate trade winds
elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft
in central Caribbean and Windward Passage, 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras, but only 2 to 4 ft elsewhere in the northwest
Caribbean. No significant shower activity is evident across the
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will continue
to support fresh winds and moderate seas in the Windward
Passage, and off Colombia through early Thu. As high pressure
shifts east, winds and seas will begin to diminish across the
basin. This pattern will support fresh to strong E to SE winds
and building seas from the Gulf of Honduras through the Yucatan
Channel by the end of the week into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1021 mb high pressure is centered just north of Grand Bahama
Island is supporting light winds over the discussion waters west
of 70W, with 2 to 4 ft seas in open waters. Farther east, a cold
front moved south of Bermuda, as far south as 30N, between 60W
and 70W. Recent scatterometer data shows strong to near-gale
force winds north of 28N ahead of and following the front,
between 50W and 65W. Seas are estimated to be 10 to 14 ft in this
area, with 8 to 10 ft seas in NW swell north of 26N between 45W
and 70W. Elsewhere over the north Atlantic south of 32N, a ridge
extends from 1017 mb near 23N31W westward to 50W. This is
supporting moderate trade winds south of 20N and light to gentle
breezes north of 20N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft primarily in NW swell.

For forecast covering the area west of 65W, winds and seas may
increase east of Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front
moving into the southeast U.S.

$$
Christensen
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