[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Apr 07 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0420 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
SW Senegal, near its border with Guinea-Bissau, to 10N18W and
04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W, 02N26W, 02N30W, 01N39W,
to 02N42W, and to 02N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are
from 08N southward from 60W between Africa and South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico,
and the Atlantic Ocean from 70W westward. A surface ridge
extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high pressure center that
is near 28N76W, to a NE Gulf of Mexico 1020 mb high pressure
center that is near 29N84W, to the middle Texas Gulf coast.

High pressure will shift eastward, gradually, as a cold front
moves slowly through the Lower Mississippi Valley, before
stalling in the northern Gulf this weekend. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula once again
tonight. Mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow will
prevail through the week, increasing to fresh to locally strong
Fri night into Sat, ahead of the front, before diminishing
thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 16N northward. The
precipitation is associated with  moisture that is related to a
frontal boundary that was extending from Haiti to the coastal
border areas of Honduras and Nicaragua, 48 hours ago.

A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, to the
Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is in parts of northern
Colombia and NW Venezuela, from 08N to 11N between Lake
Maracaibo and 75W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is elsewhere in Colombia, from 75W eastward.

The GFS model for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow, from
16N southward from 73W westward.
The GFS model for 250 mb shows a ridge on top of the same area.
The GFS model for 500 mb shows a anticyclonic wind flow from 15N
southward from 73W eastward, with a ridge. The 500 mb forecast
also indicates broad cyclonic wind flow from 15N southward from
75W westward. Westerly wind flow covers the remainder of the
area, at 500 mb.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure north of the basin will continue to support fresh
to strong winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and off Colombia tonight. As high pressure
shifts east, the winds and the seas will begin to diminish
across the basin. This pattern will support fresh to strong E to
SE winds and building seas north of Honduras by the end of the
week into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One surface trough passes through 32N54W to 26N66W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are within 120 nm to the east of the
surface trough. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Atlantic Ocean to the west and northwest of the first surface
trough. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N76W.

A second surface trough is along 30N44W 25N50W 21N60W, to the
coastal waters that are just to the north of Puerto Rico.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm
on either side of the second surface trough.

A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 23N41W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N to
30N, from the 32N29W 26N40W trough eastward.

A surface trough will drift southeastward across the Tropical N
Atlantic to just northwest of Puerto Rico. The winds and the
seas south of 22N and west of the boundary will diminish and
subside tonight. A low pressure system will bring strong winds
and building seas to the area east of 70W and north of 27N
tonight through Wed. Winds and seas may increase east of Florida
this
weekend ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S.

$$
mt/jl
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