[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052249
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2210 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 06N21W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 03N33W to the coast of Brazil near
01N50W. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure center is located over central Alabama.
Gentle to moderate winds are prevailing across most of the Gulf.
Fresh to moderate easterly winds prevail across the Florida
Straights and portions of the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. A trough
also extends along the western Yucatan coast from 22N89W to
19N92W. Fair conditions are noted across the basin with seas 2-3
ft.

High pressure over north Florida will shift eastward through mid
week as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi
Valley, before stalling over the northern Gulf by Sat. This
pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds over the northeast
Gulf to increase by Sat, while moderate to fresh winds over the
northwest Gulf to diminish. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW
of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along
the northern Colombia coast, S of 12N between 73W-76W. A few
training showers are observed between Jamaica and Honduras in the
wake of the recently dissipated stationary front. No other
significant convection is noted. Fresh winds are occurring north
of the Colombia coast in addition to the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh
winds also continue across the Windward Passage and in the lee
of Cuba. Gentle to moderate prevail throughout the rest of the
basin. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the south-
central Caribbean.

High pressure over north Florida will support fresh to strong
winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage,
and off Colombia tonight and Tue night. Winds and seas will
diminish slightly across the basin starting mid week as the high
pressure weakens and shifts eastward. This pattern will support
fresh winds and building seas north of Honduras by late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure continues to extend across the western Atlantic
with fair weather conditions and light winds. A cold front
extends from 31N45W to 26N52W to 23N60W. The tail-end of the
front stalls from 23N60W to northern Hispaniola near 20N70W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the front from
26N-30N between 33W-49W. Scatterometer data reveals gentle to
moderate NW winds behind the cold front, while behind the
stationary front fresh to strong NE winds are S of 25N. Seas
range 3-6 ft in the western Atlantic and 7-12 ft in the central
Atlantic.

High pressure is building eastward along 27N, north of a stalled
frontal boundary reaching from 21N65W to the north central
Dominican Republic. Seas to 8 ft west of this boundary and south
of 22N will subside overnight. By midweek, another low pressure
system could bring strong winds and building seas to the area
east of 70W and north of 29N.

Surface ridging stretches across the eastern Atlantic anchored
by a 1018 mb high near 23N41W.

$$
AReinhart
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