[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 05 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 05N17W, and to 03N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N21W, 02N30W, to the Equator along 35W, to
01S42W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is from 07N southward between 50W and 57W, in the coastal
waters of French Guiana and Suriname. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 07N southward from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center, that
is along 86W/87W about 40 nm to the south of the Florida
Panhandle, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh to strong NE winds cover the waters that are from the
Straits of Florida into the Yucatan Channel.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken multilayered
clouds, that are from 29N southward from 90W eastward, and from
92W westward.

High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to extend
across the basin through the week. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse to the W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through
Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front passes through the NW sections of
the Dominican Republic, southwestward, through SW Haiti, to
16N80W. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the Caribbean
Sea from the dissipating stationary front northward and
northwestward.

A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, to the
Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate,
and isolated strong, are in Colombia, within 120 nm on either
side the line that runs from 09N76W to the Equator along 70W.

The GFS model for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow from
Jamaica southward from 70W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

The current dissipating stationary front extends from Hispaniola
to 16N80W. The front is expected to continue to dissipate
through tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas west of
the front will persist in the Lee of Cuba and across the
approach to the Windward Passage through the early part of the
week. High pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to
strong
trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday
night. The highest winds will be near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N49W, to 30N50W 23N60W,beyond the
coast of the Dominican Republic along 70W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward
between 43W and the cold front. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate is elsewhere within 180 nm on either side of the rest
of the cold front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans
the Atlantic Ocean to the west and northwest of the cold front.

A cold front was along 32N29W 27N34W 26N40W, 24 hours ago.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds remain in the area of the
now-dissipated cold front. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 24N northward between 20W and 50W.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 23N45W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 28N
between 20W and 51W.

The current cold front stretches from 29N64W to 20N70W. Fresh to
strong winds continue to the east of the Turks and Caicos, and
to the south of 23N, but they are expected to diminish by
tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue near the Windward
Passage through Monday. High pressure will settle across the
region during the early part of the week, with more tranquil
marine conditions forecast. By midweek, another low pressure
system may bring strong winds and building seas to the area that
is to the east of 70W and to the north of 29N.

$$
mt/jl
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