[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041713
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N27W to 01N38W to
01N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N-05N between 10W-35W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 02S-06N between 38W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1030 mb centered over Georgia and Alabama
extends broad ridging across the Gulf of Mexico. A recent ASCAT
data pass shows fresh NE-E winds over the SE Gulf, Florida
Straits and Yucatan Channel, with gentle to moderate E flow
elsewhere. Seas are currently 1-3 feet over the northern Gulf
and 2-4 ft over the central Gulf, increasing to a maximum of 6
ft near the Yucatan Channel. NOAA buoy 42003 near 25.9N 85.6W is
reporting 17 kt winds and 3 ft seas. A buoy in the Florida
Straits to the south of Key West is reporting 6 ft seas at 1500
UTC this morning. In the SW Gulf, NOAA buoy 42055 near 22.1N
93.9W has ENE winds 10 kt and 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will
continue to extend across the basin through the middle of the
week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula at night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the north coast of Haiti near
20N72W to 17N77W to the Honduras/Nicaragua border near 15N83W.
Isolated to scattered showers are within 75 nm either side of
the stationary front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong
NE winds to the NW of the front. Within this area, strong to
locally near gale force winds are seen in the Windward Passage
and in the Lee of Cuba. Seas over the NW Caribbean are estimated
to be 6 to 8 ft. Farther east, the ASCAT pass shows moderate
trades in the E Caribbean, and fresh to strong winds in the
south-central Caribbean. Seas are likely 3-5 ft in the eastern
Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the south-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, the stationary front is expected to gradually
dissipate through tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate
seas west of the front will persist in the Lee of Cuba and
across the approach to the Windward Passage through the early
part of the week. High pressure in the Atlantic will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
through Tue night, with the highest winds near the Colombia
coast.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 50W: A cold front extends from 32N53W to 25N61W to the N
coast of Haiti near 20N72W. Isolated to scattered showers are
within 60 nm NW and within 120 nm SE of the front. A recent
ASCAT data pass shows fresh to locally strong N-NE winds south
of 26N and west of the front, with fresh N winds north of 26N
between the front and 70W. Gentle anti-cyclonic flow prevails
off the coast of northern and central Florida, north of 27N and
west of 72W due to a 1030 mb high pressure centered over
Georgia. Seas are 7-10 ft in N swell west of the front to 75W
and east of the Bahamas, and 4-6 ft west of 76W.

The cold front will slowly move eastward, stalling and gradually
dissipating Mon night from 23N60W to just northwest of the Mona
Passage. Behind the front, fresh to strong NW to N winds and
moderate seas are expected through this evening. Fresh to strong
winds will continue near the Windward Passage through Mon. High
pressure will settle across the western Atlantic during the
early part of the week with more tranquil marine conditions
forecast.

East of 50W: A 1019 mb high is near 23N47W. A surface ridge with
light to gentle winds extends eastward from the high to 23N33W
to 29N20W to a 1020 mb high near 35N18W. North of the ridge, a
large gale force low centered near 36N37W is producing fresh to
strong west winds from 29N-32N between 31W-42W. Seas of 8-10 ft
in N swell cover the waters north of 25N between 26W-42W. These
conditions will migrate slowly E over the next 24 hours as the
low north of the area drifts eastward. Seas are in the 5-7 ft
range elsewhere across the open central and eastern tropical
Atlantic waters.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net