[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040907
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 12N16W to
06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 00N39W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-05N
between 14W-29W, and from 03N-05N between 33W-36W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 00N-02N between 34W- 40W, from
00N-03N between 41W-47W, and from 03N-05N between 44W- 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is over Georgia with a ridge axis extending westward
to the Texas Panhandle. Fresh to strong NE flow is noted in the
southeast Gulf with moderate to fresh winds in the south-central
Gulf. Moderate NE-E flow prevails elsewhere east of 90W, with
moderate E-SE flow west of 90W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in
the southeast Gulf in fresh NE swell, and mainly 3-5 ft
elsewhere. Isolated showers are possible in the easterly wind
flow.

The fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the southeast Gulf
will gradually diminish and subside later this morning. High
pressure will continue to extend across the basin through the
middle of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula at night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from over northern Haiti to south of
the Windward Passage to across Jamaica to near the Honduras-
Nicaragua border. Isolated to scattered showers are possible near
and west of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are west of the
front as well as across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas
are in the 5-8 ft range west of the front.

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia to the
Colombia-Panama border beyond into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across portions of
central and northern Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts and
the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for
more details.

Fresh to strong winds are noted just offshore of northern Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere east of the stationary front. Seas are mainly in the 4-6
ft range east of the stationary front, locally to 7 ft northwest
of the coast of Colombia. Isolated to scattered showers are
possible in the trade wind flow.

The stationary front is expected to gradually dissipate through
tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas west of the front
will persist in the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the
Windward Passage through the early part of the week. High pressure
in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean through Tue night, with the highest winds
near the Colombia coast.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 24N65W to 20N72W. Scattered
showers are possible near and on either side of the front. Fresh
to strong N-NE winds are noted south of 27N and west of the
front, with moderate to fresh mainly N-NE winds west of the front.
Seas are 8-11 ft in NE swell west of the front to 76W and east of
the Bahamas, and 5-8 ft west of 76W.

A complex low pressure system north of the area extends a trough
from 31N36W to 29N40W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible
north of 24N and east of 50W. A small area of fresh to strong
winds remains near the trough, north of 29N between 33W-40W. Seas
associated with this system of 8-12 ft in NE swell covers the
waters north of 22N between 28W-48W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range
elsewhere across the open central and eastern tropical Atlantic
waters. A ridge axis extends from 31N51W to 25N50W to 24N28W to
31N19W with light anticyclonic winds under the ridge. Moderate to
locally fresh trades cover the waters south of 20N.

The cold front in the southwest north Atlantic will slowly move
eastward, stalling and gradually dissipating from 22N65W to just
northwest of the Mona Passage. Behind the cold front, fresh to
strong NW to N winds and moderate seas are expected through this
evening. Fresh to strong winds will continue near the Windward
Passage through Mon. High pressure will settle across the region
during the early part of the week with more tranquil marine
conditions forecast.

$$
Lewitsky
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