[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 03 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 05N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N18W to 01N28W to 01N43W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm
of the ITCZ between 33W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 39W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Now that earlier cold front has exited the basin, strong high is
building in across the area. It is anchored by a 1034 mb high
center located over southeastern Arkansas. A surface trough
extends over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 19N95W to northwest
to just northeast of Tampico, Mexico and north to 24N98W. GOES-16
satellite imagery shows broken low clouds with possible drizzle
and mist confined from 19N to 23N and west of 95W to inland
Mexico. The anticyclonic flow around the high center has ushered
in a much drier and cooler air mass over the basin compared to
that of the previous days. This has lead for mainly scattered
stratocumulus clouds to develop over the central and western Gulf
waters, while clear skies are over the eastern Gulf waters.

A tight gradient between the aforementioned trough and a 1027 mb
high center analyzed over eastern Mexico at 24N99W is producing
strong northwest winds to west of the trough. Latest Ascat data
showed fresh to strong northeast winds over the remainder of the
Gulf. These winds are strongest over southern and eastern
portions of the basin, including the Straits of Florida and
Yucatan Channel. Wave heights in the SW Gulf are slowly
subsiding, however, over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of
Florida they remain quite high, up to 11 ft. Winds over the
Straits of Florida are forecast to reach the range of 25-30 kt
tonight. The wave heights will remain high through Sat, before
they begin to subside. The strong high pressure over the area
tied to the 1034 mb mentioned earlier will continue to build
east- southeast over the southeastern U.S. through late Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the NW Caribbean Sea from central
Cuba near 22N79W to Belize near 17N88W. A recent ASCAT pass
shows strong N winds north of the front. Wave heights of 8-11 ft
are in the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean. The latest
Ascat pass showed north to northeast winds north of the front and
over much of the south-central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean, and with
exception for light to gentle in the Windward Passage and Jamaica
area. Wave heights are 6-8 ft in the south-central and in the
southwestern Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-4
ft from the Windward Passage to Jamaica. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over the far southwestern Caribbean,
while numerous showers and thunderstorms are over northern
Colombia. Isolated showers moving to the southwest are over the
west-central Caribbean, westward to the coast of Nicaragua and
inland there as well.

For the forecast: The cold front will reach from eastern Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then stall from from Hispaniola
to near the Honduras Nicaragua border later this weekend before
dissipating. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front,
persisting in the lee of Cuba and across the approach to the
Windward Passage through the weekend. High pressure in the
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean through early next week, with the highest winds
expected near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade
winds will continue elsewhere across the east and central
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 32N68W to the central Bahamas
near 24N75W and to central Cuba near 22N78W as of 21Z. Fresh to
strong north to northeast winds are west of the front to the
coast of Florida, and also over the Straits of Florida. Wave
heights of 7-9 ft are likely occurring across the western
Atlantic behind the front. NOAA Buoy 41010 near 28.9N 78.5W just
recently reported significant wave heights to near 10 ft, with a
north wind of 20 kt gusting to near 30 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the front north of 25N.
Scattered showers are along and within 120 nm west of the front
north of about 25N. A 1023 mb high pressure center is analyzed
near 31N54W.

For the forecast in the western Atlantic: The cold front will
reach from Bermuda to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern
Cuba tonight. The western portion of the front will stall later
in the weekend north of Hispaniola, and through the Windward
Passage, while the eastern portion of the front will reach to
near 32N53W by early Sun. Fresh to strong northwest to north
winds along with wave heights in the range of 7-10 ft are
expected behind the front. High pressure will settle across the
western Atlantic early next week bringing more tranquil marine
conditions.

Farther east, a dissipating cold front extends from near 32N30N
to 26N25W and to near 23N43W. Scattered to broken low clouds are
along and within 60 nm east of the front. Isolated showers are
possible with these clouds. Fresh to strong south winds precede
this front north of about 27.5N. A large gale-force 1000 mb low
north of the area near 37N43W is moving SE at 25 kt. It is
producing fresh to strong northwest winds as far south as 30N
between 42W-48W based on the latest Ascat data. This
extratropical cyclone is producing seas of 8-12 ft north of 27N
between 40W-48W. The system is forecast to reach near 34N33W by
early Sat afternoon. The associated conditions south of 32N will
diminishing on as the system lifts far to the north-northeast.
Mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds are elsewhere across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean south of 20N, where wave heights are
in the 6-9 ft range. Elsewhere east of 65W, gentle to moderate
winds are across the majority of that part of the north of 20N.

$$
Aguirre
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