[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 06N18W. The ITCZ axis continues from 05N18W to
01N28W to 01N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03S-
05N between 28W-43W, and from 00N-03N between 14W-20W. Scattered
moderate convection seen from 02N-07N between 44W-52W is
associated with a trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has exited the basin, and is now located over the
NW Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula. In its wake, high pressure
has built in, anchored by a 1036 mb high over southern Illinois
and a 1027 mb high over NE Mexico. A surface trough extends over
the SW Gulf of Mexico from 19N94.5W to 23N98W, spreading
cloudiness over the area. Strong NW winds are occurring to the
west of the surface trough. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to
strong NE winds over the remainder of the Gulf. These winds are
strongest over southern and eastern portions of the basin,
including the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. Buoy 42055 in
the SW Gulf of Mexico is reporting seas of 11 ft as of 02/1400
UTC. These fresh to strong winds and large seas will gradually
diminish over the basin into the weekend. High pressure will
prevail into the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the NW Caribbean Sea from central
Cuba near 22N80W to south of Tulum Mexico near 19.5N88W. A
recent ASCAT pass shows strong N winds north of the front. Seas
of 8-11 ft are in the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean. The
ASCAT pass shows strong trades in the south-central Caribbean,
with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the eastern and
central Caribbean, except for light to gentle in the Windward
Passage and Jamaica area. Seas are 6-9 ft in the south-central
to SW Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern basin, and 2-4 ft from
the Windward Passage to Jamaica. A few showers are noted
offshore Nicaragua. More significant convection is seen on the
Panama/Colombia border and well inland over western Colombia.

For the forecast, the cold front will stretch from eastern Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then stall from the Windward
Passage to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border later this weekend
before dissipating. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front,
persisting in the lee of Cuba and across the approach to the
Windward Passage through the weekend. High pressure in the
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean through early next week, with the
highest winds near the Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh trade
winds will prevail elsewhere across the east and central
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N68W to the central Bahamas near
24N76W to central Cuba near 22N80W. A recent ASCAT pass shows
fresh to strong N winds behind the front to the coast of
Florida, and in the Florida Straits. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are
likely occurring across the western Atlantic behind the front.
NOAA Buoy 41010 near 28.9N 78.5W reported significant wave
heights of 8 ft at 02/1400 UTC with N winds of 23 kt gusting to
29 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm behind and
within 180 nm ahead of the cold front, mainly north of 23N and
east of 76W. Some of this activity is over portions of the
central Bahamas. The most concentrated of the shower and tstorm
activity is occurring to the NE of the Bahamas, from 26N-32N
between 65W-74W. A 1031 mb high pressure is near 31N54W.

For the forecast in the western Atlantic, the cold front will
reach from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and into eastern Cuba
tonight. The western portion of the front will stall later in
the weekend N of Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage,
while the eastern portion of the front will reach to near 32N53W
by early Sun. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 7-10 ft
are expected behind the front. High pressure will settle across
the W Atlantic early next week with more tranquil marine
conditions forecast.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N31N to 24N42W. The
front is analyzed as a dissipating front from 24N42W to 26N58W.
Isolated showers are possible near the front to the east of 36W.
A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong S winds within 180 nm
preceding this front to the north of 27.5N and east of 34W. A
large, gale force 1000 mb low north of the area near 39N44W is
producing fresh to strong NW winds as far south as 30N near
42W-48W, according to a recent ASCAT pass. This extratropical
cyclone is producing seas of 8-12 ft north of 27N between
40W-48W. The system is expected to move closer to 32N and will
shift an area of strong to near gale winds and building seas to
16 ft north of 27N and east of 50W later today through Sat
before diminishing Sun. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trade
winds prevail across the tropical Atlantic Ocean south of 20N,
where an altimeter pass from earlier this morning measured waves
of 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere east of 65W, gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the majority of the 20N-30N latitude band.

$$
Hagen
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