[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 01 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A late season and strong cold front
has recently moved just offshore the Texas and southwestern
Louisiana coasts. It will quickly move across the rest of the
Gulf through late Thu. Behind the front, strong to near gale
force northerly winds are expected across much of the northern
and western Gulf, including frequent gusts to gale force offshore
Texas through the western Florida Panhandle tonight through Thu
morning. Gale-force winds will develop near Tampico, Mexico early
Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu evening.
Most of the Gulf will experience wave heights in the range of
9-13 ft on Thu behind the cold front. This cold front will also
bring a relief of the summer-like temperatures in south Florida
for this upcoming weekend. Winds will diminish across the region
Fri through Sat.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient remains over
the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the
Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in northern Colombia. This
gradient will continue to support fresh to strong winds offshore
of northern Colombia, pulsing to minimal gale-force at times
during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions
are expected to continue through Thu morning. Wave heights are
forecast to peak around 11-14 ft during the period of gale-
force winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both
warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
09N13W to 05N18W, where the latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil
near 01N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of
the ITCZ between 30W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico near
Tampico, Mexico due a very tight gradient developing behind
a strong cold front that has recently entered the far NW Gulf.
A Gale Warning is also in effect for frequent gusts to gale
force in the coastal waters from southern Texas to the western
panhandle of Florida where gusty winds of 40-45 kt are expected.
Please, see the Special Feature section for more details.

Gentle to moderate E winds are ahead of the front in the central
Gulf, while moderate to fresh S winds are in the SW Gulf and in
the Bay of Campeche near a weak surface trough located along
the western Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate E winds continue in the
Florida Straits. Some showers located over the waters adjacent
to the northern Gulf coast due to surface troughing. Seas are in
the 1-3 ft range across the basin.

For the forecast, please see the Special Features section.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Feature section
for more details.

Scatterometer data from 0000 UTC revealed strong to near gale
force ENE winds covering most of the central Caribbean. Seas in
the central and south-central Caribbean, including off the
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica are 9-13 ft. Fresh to strong
trades are noted in the eastern Caribbean with seas 6-8 ft,
while gentle to moderate winds are in the western and
northwestern Caribbean with seas 3-4ft. Shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow is seen across the basin with
low-level cloud streamers in the lee side of the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast, high pressure across the Atlantic will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
through Fri. Fresh easterly trade winds will prevail elsewhere
across the east-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are
possible in the Windward Passage overnight.

A relatively strong cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu
afternoon and move across the NW Caribbean Thu night followed by
fresh to strong northerly winds. Wave heights are forecast to
build to the range of 8-10 ft in the Yucatan Channel by Thu
night. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras on Fri, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of
northeastern Honduras by Sat morning. Expect fresh to strong
northeast winds in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward passage by
late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

GOES-16 satellite imagery and lightning density data reveal a
line of showers and thunderstorms moving off the SE U.S. coast,
entering our discussion area near 32N77W and stretching to the
waters off Fort Pierce, FL. This convention is related to a
prefrontal trough draped across the Carolinas and Georgia.
Southerly moderate to fresh winds are in the region, ahead of
the trough.

For the forecast, A cold front will move east of northern
Florida Thu morning, extend from near Bermuda to western Cuba on
Fri, from 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken
from 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Sun. Fresh to strong NW
to N winds and building seas are expected in association with
the cold front.

Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion area near
32N37W and extends SW to 27N52W where the boundary is dying.
Some showers are still possible along the front. Moderate to
fresh N winds are behind the front while moderate SW winds are
within 90 nm ahead of the front. Otherwise, winds west of 50W
are moderate to fresh trades. A 1020 mb high pressure centered
near 29N32W is allowing for gentle return flow over most of the
eastern Atlantic with moderate trades extending south of 15N.
Seas are 8-10 ft east of 50W and 5-8 ft west of 50W. The
exception being the northern coasts of the Leeward Islands and
Puerto Rico where seas are up to 10 ft.

$$
Mora
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