[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Sep 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front has entered the Gulf waters and now extends
from the Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the front.
The front will reach the SE Gulf waters Wed and the Straits of
Florida by Wed evening. In the wake of the front, strong
northerly winds are forecast in the western half of the basin,
with gale force winds expected west of 95W on Tue. Seas are
forecast to build to 18 or 19 ft over the SW Gulf by Tue
afternoon and evening. A secondary front will drop southward to
the northern Gulf early on Fri and reach the far southwestern
Gulf by Fri evening. Strong high pressure will build in behind
this front. The pressure gradient between the front and broad low
pressure that is expected to form over the western Caribbean by
the end of the week is expected to freshen the northeast winds
over most of the SE Gulf by the end of the week. These winds may
reach strong speeds on Sat and Sat night along with building
seas. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 40W from 02N-15N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-14N between
39W-47W.

A tropical wave axis is along 58W from 03N-19N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 11N-18N between 54W-63W.

A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean is currently
located along 71W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is inland over N Colombia and W
Venezuela from 07N-12N between 71W-75W. This wave will continue
moving westward across the basin through the period accompanied
by active weather and enhanced winds along with building seas.
This feature is expected to become part of a broad low pressure
area over the western Caribbean in a few days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 08N39W. The ITCZ
continues W of a tropical wave near 08N42W to 06N53W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 14N-22N between
63W-69W.

Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This
front is forecast to produce gale-force winds over the SW Gulf.
Refer to the Special Features section for more details. A ridge
from the Atlantic extends across Florida into the eastern Gulf.
The most recent scatterometer data depict light to gentle winds
over the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate southerly winds
ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving over the central Caribbean. Please
refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details.

Presently clusters of scattered moderate convection are inland
over Honduras, Nicaragua, and N Costa Rica.

Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will
increase to fresh to strong speeds by mid-week. Moderate winds
will continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the
northwestern Caribbean. A tropical wave, currently located along
71W, will continue moving westward across the basin through the
period accompanied by active weather and enhanced winds along
with building seas. This feature is expected to become part of
a broad low pressure area over the western Caribbean over the
next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the tropical Atlantic.

A 1032 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 40N45W.
The tail end of a cold front is just N of the area from 37N30W
to 33N43W to 33N60W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120
nm of the front.

Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining
gentle to moderate winds across the area. The high pressure
will begin retreat eastward through Wed in response to a cold
front that will be moving across the southeastern U.S. This
front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast Tue night and move
over the northwest part of the area through Wed. The front will
weaken through the end of the week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front.

$$
Formosa
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