[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Sep 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, then
reach the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida Wed evening. Behind the
front, gale force N winds are expected Tue and Tue night over the
west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 26N and west
of 95W. Seas are expected to build to 10-14 ft within the gale
area by Tue morning. These conditions are expected to dissipate by
early Wed. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 33W from 02N-19N, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 33W-
39W.

A tropical wave axis is along 53W from 04N-19N, moving W at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-15N between 48W-
56W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 65W from 03N-
17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection
is noted from 04N-20N between 60W-70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 08N30W to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 11N51W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 12N54W to 11N62W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
showers are noted along the boundary and east of 29W.

Gulf of Mexico...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the southwest Gulf.

A mid-level trough is located over the northern Gulf of Mexico
from the Florida Panhandle to southern Texas. East of this
trough, mid-level SW winds are transporting moist air from the
Bay of Campeche to the central and NE Gulf. As a result, scattered
moderate convection is noted across the south-central portion of
the basin along 23N and 90W. To the southwest, a surface trough
extends along 91W and south of 21N enhancing winds/convection
over the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Peninsula. Recent ASCAT data
depicts light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate
to locally fresh S winds over the central and western portions.

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, then
reach the southeastern Gulf waters Wed and the Straits of Florida
Wed evening. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds are
expected in the western half of the of the basin, with gale force
winds west of 95W on Tue. A secondary front will drop southward to
the northern Gulf early on Fri and reach the far southwestern
Gulf by Fri evening. Strong high pressure will build in behind
this front. The pressure gradient between the front and a tropical
wave that will approach the western Caribbean is expected to
freshen the northeast winds over most of the southeastern Gulf on
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving over the E Caribbean. Please refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for details.

Scattered moderate convection is S of Cuba from 19N-22N between
77W-83W. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is
enhancing scattered showers S of 11N. ASCAT data depicts moderate
to fresh winds over the south-central Caribbean north of Colombia
and over the Gulf of Honduras, while gentle to moderate trades
prevail elsewhere. Fresh trades are also noted near the Lesser
Antilles east of the tropical wave axis.

Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will
increase to fresh to strong speeds by mid-week. Moderate winds
will continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the
northwestern Caribbean. The tropical wave will continue moving
west across the basin enhancing convection/winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Over the western Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is N of
the Bahamas north of 27N-30N between 75W-80W. A surface trough
extends from 30N71W to 26N69W. Another trough extends from 30N59W
to 26N58W. Neither of these troughs have significant convection at
this time. Further E, a surface trough is analyzed from 22N44W to
15N45W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin.

Over the W Atlantic, a cold front will reach the southeastern
U.S. coast Tue night and move over the northwest part of the area
through Wed. The front will begin to weaken as it reaches from
near 31N74W to South Florida by Wed night and become stationary
from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida by late Thu through Fri
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of
the cold front. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
ERA
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