[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: Gale force northerly winds are
currently occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco from
30N-31.5N, between 10W-11.5W in the marine zone Agadir, according
to a set of ASCAT passes from around 27/1000 UTC. A gale warning
is currently posted there from Meteo France. The gale warning
will continue in Agadir until Monday at 28/0900 UTC. Please see
the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more information.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf Mon afternoon, then reach the SE Gulf and Straits of
Florida Wed evening. Behind the front, gale force N winds are
expected Tue and Tue night over the west-central and SW Gulf
of Mexico, mainly south of 26N and west of 95W. Seas are
expected to build to 10-14 ft within the gale area by Tue
morning. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 31W from 02N-19N, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm
east and 210 nm west of the wave axis from 04N-10N.

A tropical wave axis is along 50W from 04N-19N, moving W at 10-15
kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and
within 240 nm E of the wave axis from 09N-14N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 63W from
03N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is along and within 300 nm east of the wave axis from
the Anegada Passage at 17.5N to inland portions of Venezuela, an
gradually weakening across the Lesser Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 10N27W to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 10.5N43W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave from 10.5N52W to 10N60W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 240 nm
south of the trough from the west coast of Africa to 26N, and from
04N-11N between 35W and 44W.

A mid-level trough oriented ENE-WSW is located over the northern
Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle to deep southern Texas.
East of this trough, mid- level SW winds are transporting moist
air from the Bay of Campeche to the central and NE Gulf. As a
result, clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is seen within 240 nm SE of a line from Pensacola, Florida to
24N93W. Scattered moderate to strong afternoon convection is also
seen across the Florida Peninsula north of Lake Okeechobee, and
along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Recent ASCAT data
depicts gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, with moderate to
locally fresh S winds over the central and western portions.

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Mon afternoon, then
quickly reach the southeastern Gulf waters Wed and the Straits of
Florida Wed evening. Gale force winds are expected over portions
of the west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico Tue and Tue night. See
Special Features section above for details on the gale warning.
Outside the gale area, strong northerly winds are expected in the
western half of the basin behind the front. High pressure behind
the front will slide eastward across the northern Gulf through Thu
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is exiting the Lesser Antilles and moving across
the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section
for more details.

In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
scattered moderate to strong convection south of 12N between
77W-81W, while scattered showers are noted elsewhere south of 15N
between 80W and the coast of Nicaragua. A small upper-level
trough is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection
north of 17N and east of 65W, across the Virgin Islands and
eastern coastal waters of Puerto Rico and extends NE into the
adjacent Atlantic. Elsewhere scattered strong afternoon thunderstorms
over Cuba west of 79W have begun to drift SSW and over the
adjacent coastal waters. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh
winds over the south- central Caribbean north of Colombia and over
the Gulf of Honduras, while gentle to moderate trades prevail
elsewhere. Fresh trades are also moving through the Lesser
Antilles east of the wave axis that is along 63W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will
increase to fresh to strong by Wed. Mainly moderate winds will
continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the northwestern
Caribbean. The tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will move
across the rest of the eastern Caribbean through Mon evening,
then across the central Caribbean Tue through early Wed and across
the western Caribbean Thu and Thu night. Scattered showers and
tstorms will follow along and behind the wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Over the western Atlantic, a 1014 mb surface low is centered NE of
the Bahamas near 28N70W. A surface trough extends from 30N72W to
the low to 25N69W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
22N-32N between 64W-69W. To the east, another surface trough is
from 31N56W to 25N56W with isolated showers. A stationary front
is from 32N48W to 30N54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 30N- 32N between 51.5W-54W. A surface trough extends from
21N40W to 13N42W with scattered showers near the trough. Scattered
showers are seen from 23N-30N between 27W- 36W due to an upper-
level low that is centered near 26N35W. Strong N-NE winds are
noted in the E Atlantic from 19N-29N, east of 26W, and from 29N-
32N, east of 19W, with gale force winds near the coast of Morocco.

Moderate to fresh SE winds are expected east of the low and
trough that area NE of Bahamas this evening and tonight, while
gentle to moderate SE winds prevail between the trough and Florida.
A cold front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast Tue night and
move over the northwest part of the area on Wed. The cold front
will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N74W to South
Florida by Wed night and become stationary from 31N73W to the
Straits of Florida by late Thu. Scattered showers and tstorms are
expected ahead of the front.

$$
Stripling
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