[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Sep 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 08N to
16N between 36W and 41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53/54W from 13N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted
within 180 nm W of the wave axis south of 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
12N16W to 10N26W to 11N34W. The ITCZ is from 08N43W to 07N50W.
Isolated moderate convection is within 210 nm either side of the
monsoon trough between 21W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front is over the NE Gulf of Mexico from
Tallahassee Florida to 26N90W. The northern Gulf is devoid of
shower activity north of 25N. Scattered moderate showers and
isolated tstorms prevail south of 25N over the SE and south-
central Gulf of Mexico. The latest ASCAT pass shows gentle wind
speeds over most of the basin.

For the forecast, the weakening stationary front is expected to
dissipate completely this evening. A strong cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Mon evening. Strong to near gale force northerly
winds are expected in the western half of the basin, with
possible gale force winds near Veracruz on Tue and Tue evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest TPW imagery shows that high moisture content covers
the NW Caribbean west of a line from central Cuba to the eastern
tip of Honduras. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted over the NW Caribbean Sea stretching from Cuba and the
Cayman Islands to the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Additional scattered moderate to strong convection is over
northern Honduras and extending just offshore of northern
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is also seen over the SW
Caribbean south of 14N due to the east Pacific monsoon trough.
The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate trades across the basin,
with fresh trades noted in the south-central Caribbean off of N
Colombia south of 14N between 71W-76W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean through Wed. However, expect trades to become fresh to
strong near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela
during this weekend, and then again on Wed night. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the area, except
moderate to fresh ESE winds in the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun
nights.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large area of enhanced moisture and upper-level divergence is
responsible for scattered moderate convection covering the
western Atlantic from Cuba to 32N between 74W and Florida,
including the Bahamas, where moderate SE winds prevail. A 1017 mb
low near 26N62W is along a surface trough that extends from
27N61W to Puerto Rico. Isolated showers are seen near and west of
the low. Farther east, a dissipating stationary front extends
from 31N50W to 25N58W. Isolated showers are from 17N-25N between
50W-61W. A large upper-level low centered near 25N33W is inducing
scattered light to moderate showers over much of the area between
35W and the coast of Africa.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh ESE winds are expected N of
22N through Sat night as a surface trough moves westward north of
the Greater Antilles this weekend before dissipating on Mon.
Moderate return flow will prevail afterwards E of the Bahamas,
gradually spreading westward through Wed night as a cold front
approaches from the west.

$$
Hagen
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