[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251045 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Sep 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 12N between 34W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 13N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm of the wave axis from 09N to 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
11N15W to 10N20W to 09N30W to 09N37W. The ITCZ is from 08N40W to
06N50W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
16N between 11W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches from NW Florida to 25N90W. The basin is
mostly devoid of shower activity except south of 22N in the Bay
of Campeche. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of the
front in the NE Gulf, and moderate NW winds in the northern Gulf
behind the front. Light winds continue in the Bay of Campeche.

The cold front is expected to weaken and dissipate in the NE
Gulf today. Southerly winds ahead of the front will diminish
this morning as the front weakens. A strong cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Mon evening. Gale force winds are possible west
of the front near Veracruz on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends across the Greater Antilles from Hispaniola to
Cuba, remnants of an Atlantic cold front. The eastern extension
of a monsoon trough in the Eastern Pacific Ocean from 10N84W to
09N78W to 10N73W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted in the western Caribbean from 15N to 18N between 81W
and 89W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is near the
coast of Colombia, within 90 nm of 12N76W. Isolated showers
elsewhere across the basin.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean through Tue, becoming fresh to strong near the coast
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend. Gentle to
moderate winds expected elsewhere across the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches across the Atlantic from 32N50W to
22N63W, becoming a surface trough from 22N63W to 19N70W, across
the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. 1023 mb high pressure is
centered near 33N63W, with a ridge across the northern waters
between the stationary front and southeast U.S. coast. Scattered
moderate convection is within 75 nm ahead of the stationary
front, with isolated showers elsewhere, mainly near the front.
High pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic, with few showers
except associated with tropical waves or the convergence zone.

High pressure building north of the area will support gentle to
moderate winds across the region through tonight. A surface
trough will move westward north of the Greater Antilles this
weekend, then weaken early next week.

$$
Mundell
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