[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Sep 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/37W, from 14N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 13N between
the tropical wave and 39W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W, from 13N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 09N to 13N between
50W and 54W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 10N20W,  09N30W, and 09N34W. The
ITCZ is along 09N38W 06N48W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong from 10N to 14N between 29W and 35W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 16N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the Yucatan
Channel. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico.

A cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico, passing
through the Florida Panhandle into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery
covers the Gulf of Mexico from 22N northward from 90W westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 26N northward between
Florida and the cold front. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and isolated strong covers the waters and land areas
from Cuba to the NW Bahamas between 75W and 83W.

The current cold front, that is extending from the westernmost
part of Florida to 25N91W, is expected to weaken and dissipate
in the NE Gulf of Mexico through Friday. Fresh southerly winds
ahead of the front will diminish overnight as the front weakens.
A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Monday evening. Gale-force winds are possible to the west of the
front, near Veracruz in Mexico, on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from Bermuda to Guatemala.

A dissipating cold front passes from Hispaniola to SE Cuba.
Precipitation: earlier widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, in Hispaniola and in and around Cuba, has been weakening
and dissipating with time, during the last few hours.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from 73W in northern
Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 300 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough between 72W and 79W, and from
10N to 13N between 71W and 76W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 70W westward.

An upper level trough extends from Hispaniola toward Nicaragua.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from the Windward
Passage westward.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central
Caribbean Sea through Tuesday, becoming strong near the coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere across most of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is between 50W and 60W, from 25N
northward. A cold front passes through 32N51W to a 1017 mb low
pressure center that is near 23N63W. A dissipating cold front
continues from the 1017 mb low center, to Hispaniola, and to SE
Cuba. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong within 250 nm to the E/SE of the frontal
boundary, from the waters that are just off the NE Caribbean Sea
islands northeastward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow,
with a large-scale ridge, covers the Atlantic Ocean, to the
northwest of the cold front.

An upper level trough extends from the Madeira Archipelago,
southwestward, for 1700 nm. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is
within 600 nm on either side of trough. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level trough extends from a 23N49W cyclonic circulation
center, for 600 nm toward the southwest. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow is within 300 nm on either side of the trough.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area of cyclonic wind
flow.

High pressure, building to the north of the area, will support
gentle to moderate winds across the area through Friday night. A
surface trough will move westward north of the Greater Antilles
this weekend, and then weaken early next week.

$$
mt
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