[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
1805 UTC EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
within 150 nm of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W to 07N31W. The ITCZ begins near 10N38W to
06N45W, then continues from 05N46W to the coast of Venezuela
near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of
the monsoon trough from 03N-09N between 18W-32W. Scattered
showers are within 100 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, A cold front stretches from the Alabama coast near
30N88W to 25N94W. A secondary cold front is pushing
southeastward from the Mississippi coast near 31N89W to 27N96W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 40 nm of either
front. A pre-frontal trough is from 28N87W to 20N93W with
showers along it. Moderate south-southeasterly winds in the
eastern Gulf ahead of the pre-frontal trough with gentle to
moderate northerly winds in the NW Gulf. Light winds continue in
the Bay of Campeche with seas 3-6 ft.

A cold front extending from SW Alabama will dissipate over the
NE Gulf waters just west of the Florida Big Bend by Fri.
Moderate to fresh SSE winds ahead of the front will diminish
tonight as the front gradually weakens. Light to gentle variable
winds will dominate the basin afterwards through Mon. Otherwise,
the next cold front is forecast to move off the coast of Texas
and Alabama by Mon evening with moderate to fresh N winds behind
it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends across the NW Caribbean from the coast of
western Cuba near 22N81W to the Yucatan near 20N88W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in this area of the basin N of 19N
between 79W-87W.  A trough off the eastern Puerto Rico coast is
giving way to thunderstorms across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. Isolated thunderstorms are also observed across the
Lesser Antilles.

The monsoon trough begins north of the Colombian coast near
12N73W to the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua near 11N84W. A 1010
mb low is along the monsoon trough near 11N80W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is near the monsoon trough
northward toward Jamaica, from 09N-19N between 73W-82W. Moderate
trades stretch across the south-central Caribbean with light to
gentle trades elsewhere. Seas range 4-7 ft in the central
Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

Large northerly swell N and NE of the Bahamas associated with a
frontal system over the SW N Atlantic waters will gradually
subside through this evening. Surface high pressure building N
of the area will support gentle to moderate return flow across
the area through Fri evening. The remnants of the front will
move into the E offshores waters N of 22N on Fri night,
tightening the pressure gradient and supporting moderate to
fresh winds over the NE waters through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches across the Atlantic from a 1016 mb low
near 30N56W to a 1013 mb low near 24N62W, then stretches to the
northern Hispaniola coast near 20N70W. Thefront stalls from
20N70W to the eastern Cuban coast near 22N77W. A trough
stretches from near 18N65W to 22N63W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the front and trough from
18N-25N between 59W-66W. Scattered moderate convection is within
200 nm along the rest of the cold front. A trough continues to
linger east of the Lesser Antilles from 22N50W to 16N59W with
scattered moderate convection within 100 nm of the trough.
Another trough stretches from 33N50W to 27N45W with isolated
thunderstorms along it.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds are north of the front with
moderate southerly winds ahead of the front, N of 25N.  Moderate
easterly winds are off the east coast of Florida and the
Bahamas. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with ridging
stretching across the rest of the basin.  Seas 8-11 ft continue
across the western Atlantic toward the Greater Antilles with 5-8
ft in the central Atlantic.

Large northerly swell N and NE of the Bahamas associated with a
frontal system over the SW N Atlantic waters will gradually
subside through this evening. Surface high pressure building N
of the area will support gentle to moderate return flow across
the area through Fri evening. The remnants of the front will
move into the E offshores waters N of 22N on Fri night,
tightening the pressure gradient and supporting moderate to
fresh winds over the NE waters through Sat night.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net