[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Sep 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 28.2N 96.1W at 21/2100 UTC
or about 20 nm SE of Port Oconnor, Texas, moving NW at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
winds speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate
convection in bands are N of 26N between 93W and 97W. The center
of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas
today and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to
remain near or just offshore the coast of southeastern Texas on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Little change in strength is forecast
before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated
once Beta moves inland. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Hurricane Teddy near 33.2N 62.0W at 21/1500 UTC or 150 nm ENE of
Bermuda moving N at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
958 mb. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Numerous
moderate convection is from 32N-40N between 57W-65W. Teddy
should turn to the north-northeast and move over eastern Nova
Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late
Wednesday into Thursday. Teddy is expected to gain strength
overnight, but weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong
post-tropical cyclone before reaching Nova Scotia. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette located about 215 nmi south of the easternmost Azores
are showing some signs of organization. Only a slight increase in
organization could result in the formation of a subtropical or
tropical cyclone tonight or early Tuesday while the system moves
eastward at 8 to 13 kt. By late Tuesday or Tuesday night, the
system is forecast to move into less favorable environmental
conditions, and further development is not expected. This system
has a high chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours. For more information about marine
hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.

WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: As of 21/2100 UTC, a cold front
extends from 27N65W to the Florida Keys near 23N80W. Behind the
front, a wide area of strong N and NE winds exist, with gales
ongoing N of 30N west of the front to 71W. These gales should
subside slightly tonight, but strong winds and rough seas, with
wave heights of up to 20 ft, will prevail into tonight. Please
see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 27W, moving
W at 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near
17N17W to 17N23W to 13N31W. The ITCZ is from 13N31W to 14N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-21N between 36W
and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Beta near 28.2N 96.1W 999 mb at 5 PM
EDT moving NW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50
kt. Beta will move inland to 28.5N 96.6W Tue morning, to 28.7N
96.5W Tue afternoon, 28.9N 95.8W Wed morning, weaken to a
tropical depression near 29.2N 94.7W Wed afternoon, 29.7N 93.3W
Thu morning, and to 30.8N 91.6W Thu afternoon. Beta will move
to 34.1N 88.7W Fri afternoon. High pressure building over the
eastern half of the Gulf in the wake of a cold front is producing
fresh to strong easterly winds. These winds will persist through
Tue.

Please see the Special Features section above for further details
on Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mainly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the
influence of two middle level highs supporting dry air
subsidence. Scattered showers are in the SW basin associated with
the E Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, gentle to locally
moderate winds are across the region due to a weak pressure
gradient.

Swell associated with tropical cyclone Teddy as well
as generated by a cold front currently extending along 24N W of
65W will impact much of the Atlantic passages beginning on Wed.
Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin
through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Teddy is N of area near 33.2N 62.0W 958 mb
at 5 PM EDT moving N at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts
100 kt. Teddy will move to 36.5N 62.5W Tue morning, 39.5N 63.7W
Tue afternoon, 42.2N 63.2W Wed morning, weaken as an extratropical
cyclone near 46.5N 61.5W Wed afternoon, 50.5N 58.0W Thu morning,
and 54.5N 53.5W Thu afternoon. Teddy will dissipate Fri afternoon.
A strong high pressure, in the wake of a cold front currently
extending along 24N W of 65W is producing fresh to strong N to NE
across the N waters. These winds will persist through Tue. Long
period swell generated by both tropical cyclone Teddy and this
cold front will impact the waters into late week.

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Teddy and the Gale Warning in effect for the west
Atlantic.

$$
Ramos
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