[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Mon Sep 21 14:06:45 CDT 2020

AXNT20 KNHC 211906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Sep 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 27.9N 95.7W at 21/1500 UTC
or about 55 nm SE of Port Oconnor, Texas, moving WNW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
winds speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A decrease in forward
speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue
to move toward the central coast of Texas today and will likely
move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain close to the
coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Once
inland, Beta will stall Tue then turn northeast Tue night and
Wed, bringing it into Louisiana. Little change in strength is
expected prior to landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Hurricane Teddy near 31.1N 62.7W at 21/1500 UTC or 150 nm ESE of
Bermuda moving NNE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 960 mb. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection extends outward from the
center 260 nm in the NE quadrant. Peak seas are currently 51 ft.
Teddy is forecast to continue a northwest motion today, followed
by a turn toward the north overnight and northwest on Tue. Teddy
should turn to the northeast as it approaches Nova Scotia on Wed.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located about 400 nm south of
the Azores and is producing a small area of moderate convection
just NE of the center. The system could become a tropical or
subtropical cyclone today or tomorrow while it moves eastward at
10 kt. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical or
subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. For more information
about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: As of 21/1500 UTC, a cold front
extends from 27N65W to the Florida Keys near 24N80W. Behind the
front, a wide area of strong N and NE winds exist, with gales
ongoing N of 28N between 68W and 75W. These gales should subside
slightly later today, but strong winds and rough seas, with wave
heights of up to 20 ft, will prevail into tonight. Please see the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from along
25W S of 21N. The wave is moving W at 10 kt. No significant
convection is occurring with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to a 1012 mb low in Cabo Verde Islands near 16N22W to
13N29W. The ITCZ is from 13N29W to 14N41W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N-17N and east of 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A nearly stationary cold front extends from the Florida Keys to
the central Gulf near 28N91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is along the front. Strong to near gale NE and E
winds will prevail N of the front over the NE Gulf this morning,
before diminishing to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon and tonight.
Moderate to locally fresh N winds with drier conditions are over
the SW Gulf, west of 94W and south of 23N. A 1012 mb low pressure
is noted near 20N92W in the Bay of Campeche with a surface trough
extending from 23N91W to 17N93W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen south of 23N and east of 94W.

On the forecast, Beta will move to near 33.5N 89.8W early Fri.
The cold front will continue to move south across the
southeastern half of the Gulf today. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds and building seas will follow the front into Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Somewhat drier air is seen over the north and northwest
Caribbean, where upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails. Higher
moisture content south of 14N where scattered moderate convection
is noted. Pacific monsoon trough near 09N75W extends westward
across Panama enhancing scattered moderate convection along the
coast of Colombia and Panama. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail.

For the forecast, large northerly swell from Hurricane Teddy will
continue to impact the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean
between the Mona Passage and the Leeward Islands through today.
Renewed northerly swell will likely reach these same passages
for the latter half of the week. Mariners are advised to check
local marine forecasts for more information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Teddy and the Gale Warning in effect for the west
Atlantic.

Remnants of Wilfred is now a surface trough extending from
19N46W to 09N48W and is producing scattered moderate convection
from 14N-23N Between 38W-46W. Scattered moderate convection
associated with a cold front depicted in the Special Features
section above is present from 23N to 26N between 68W-80W including
the south Florida coast. Light to gentle winds are noted south of
25N and west of 72W. To the east, a 1019 mb high is near 28N38W.

The remnants of Wilfred have dissipated east of the area this
morning. Hurricane Teddy is nearing Bermuda and will continue to
move northward away from the region, but swell associated with
Teddy as well as generated by a cold front well north and east of
the area will impact much of the Atlantic waters through the week.
Gale force winds N of 27N will diminished tonight but remain
fresh to strong through the next 36 hours. Long period swell
generated by both Hurricane Teddy and this cold front will impact
the waters into late week.

$$
MTorres
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