[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Sep 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 27.7N 95.1W at 21/0900 UTC
or 80 nm ESE of Port Oconnor Texas moving W at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 360 nm of the center in the NE semicircle and 120 nm of the
center in the SW semicircle. Peak seas are currently 21 ft.
Although Beta has been moving W overnight, a WNW motion is
expected to resume today, bringing landfall tonight along the
middle Texas coast. Once inland, Beta will stall Tue then turn
northeast Tue night and Wed, bringing it into Louisiana. Little
change in strength is expected prior to landfall. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 30.3N 63.2W at 21/0900 UTC or
140 nm SE of Bermuda moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with
gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
extends outward from the center 180 nm in the NE quadrant, 240 nm
in the NW quadrant, and 90 nm in the W semicircle. A general NNW
or N motion is expected through Tue, taking Teddy east then
northeast of Bermuda today. Teddy is forecast to be approaching
Nova Scotia Tue night or Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred nm south
of the Azores and is producing a small area of moderate convection
just SE of the center. The system will move east over the next
couple of days. The cyclone has a medium chance of becoming a
tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. For more
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: As of 21/0900 UTC, a cold front
extends from 31N68W to Miami Florida. Behind this front, a wide
area of strong N and NE winds exist, with gales ongoing N of 28N
between 68W and 75W. These gales should subside slightly later
this morning, but strong winds and rough seas, with wave heights
of up to 20 ft, will prevail into tonight. Please see the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from along
28W S of 20N. The wave is moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is from 14N-21N between 21W-25W. No significant
convection is occurring with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to a 1012 mb low in the Cabo Verde Islands near
17N23W to 13N32W. The ITCZ is from 13N32W to 15N41W. No
significant convection is occurring along these features.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A nearly stationary cold front extends from south of Naples
Florida to 27N91W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
front. Strong to near gale NE and E winds will prevail N of the
front over the NE Gulf this morning, before diminishing to 20 to
25 kt this afternoon and tonight. Moderate to locally fresh N
winds are over the SW Gulf, west of 93W and south of 24N.

The aforementioned front will continue to move slowly S
across the eastern half of the Gulf into later today. Strong
NE to E winds and large seas will continue today north of the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Somewhat drier air is seen over the central Caribbean, where
upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail.

For the forecast, large northerly swell from Hurricane Teddy will
continue to impact the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean
through today between the Mona Passage and the Leeward Islands.
Renewed northerly swell will likely reach these same passages for
the latter half of the week. Mariners are advised to check local
marine forecasts for more information.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Teddy and the Gale Warning in effect for the west
Atlantic.

The remnants of Wilfred are centered near 16N49W this morning and
are producing scattered moderate convection within about 60 nm of
the center. These remnants should fully dissipate later today.

Scattered moderate convection associated with a cold front
depicted in the Special Features section above is present from 24N
to 28N between 71W and the Florida coast. Light to gentle winds
are noted south of 25N and west of 72W. To the east, a 1018 mb
high is near 28N38W.

Hurricane Teddy will pass east of Bermuda today then move
northward toward Atlantic Canada, becoming extratropical by
Wed morning. A cold front moving SE through the waters will lead
to Gale conditions N of 27N this morning. Long period swell
generated by both Hurricane Teddy and this cold front will impact
the waters into late week.

$$
KONARIK
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