[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 200234
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

Microwave data since the previous advisory indicates that the
center of Wilfred is located near the southwestern edge of the deep
convection.  The displacement of the center from the convection
is the result of moderate westerly vertical wind shear.  The
initial intensity remains 35 kt, and is based on an ASCAT-B
overpass from around 0000 UTC that revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt.

Wilfred is headed toward an area of increasing westerly wind shear,
and a drier mid-level environment.  These negative factors should
lead to weakening in 24 to 48 h, and the global models dissipate
the cyclone within the next few days.  The official forecast
follows suit, but given the small size of the cyclone it could
weaken and dissipate sooner than indicated below.

The initial motion estimate is 295/14, a little faster than before.
Wilfred is forecast to remain on a west-northwestward heading
through Sunday, but should turn westward within the low-level flow
by Sunday night or Monday.  The latest NHC track forecast is once
again similar to the previous advisory and near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 14.5N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 15.3N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 15.8N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 16.2N  47.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 16.4N  49.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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