[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 26.0N 92.5W at 19/0900 UTC
or 250 nm E of mouth of The Rio Grande moving N at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is within 225 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant. The hazards to the public and property will be: storm
surge, wind, rainfall, and surf. Please, read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml,
and the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.
Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local
weather office.

Category 3 Hurricane Teddy is centered near 24.9N 58.2W at
19/0900 UTC or 560 nm SE of Bermuda moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the W
semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere
within 360 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 200 nm
of the center in the S semicircle. TEDDY will be approaching
Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday. Large swells are affecting
the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas. The
large swells will spread to Bermuda and the eastern coast of the
United States of America later today. It is likely for these
swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more
details. Please, also consult bulletins and messages from your local
weather office.

Tropical Storm Wilfred is centered near 13.1N 36.9W at 19/0900
UTC or 770 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate and isolated strong is within 180 nm of the center in
the W semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is 1008 mb located near 37N
31W...or just S of the western Azores this morning. The cyclone is
forecast to move south for the next day or two then stall over the
relatively warm waters several hundred miles S of the Azores. The
cyclone could then obtain tropical or subtropical characteristics
by early next week will it remains nearly stationary. There is a
medium chance of tropical or subtropical formation in the next 48
hours. For more information about marine hazards associated with
this system, see High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 20N16W, to 16N20W, and to 15N24W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 125 nm to 400 nm
of the monsoon trough between 14W and 18W. Also, scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 10N between 18W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes through the eastern coast of Florida along
27N, to the western coast of Florida along 26N, into the Gulf of
Mexico near 25N87W. No significant deep convective precipitation
is associated with the cold front.

Tropical Storm Beta near 26.0N 92.5W 996 mb at 5 AM EDT moving N
at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Beta will move
to 26.6N 92.6W this afternoon, 26.9N 93.4W Sun morning, then
strengthen to a hurricane near 27.1N 94.3W Sun afternoon,
Hurricane Beta will be near 27.4N 95.2W Mon morning, 27.7N 95.9W
Mon afternoon, and 28.1N 96.3W Tue morning. Beta will weaken to a
tropical storm offshore the Texas coast early Wed A cold front
will move through the northeast Gulf through the weekend, bringing
fresh to strong NE winds into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough is moving through the area that
extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to Guatemala. Broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted
in Cuba. Isolated moderate to strong convection covers areas from
Honduras to 23N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico between
Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The
comparatively strongest convective precipitation is occurring in
parts of Belize and northern Guatemala, and in the western
sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A surface trough extends from 14N63W to a 1010 mb low pressure
near 13N67W. Precipitation: scattered moderate is within 120 nm
on either side of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate is from 14N southward from 73W
westward.

Tropical Storm Wilfred near 13.1N 36.9W 1007 mb at 5
AM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45
kt. Wilfred will move to 13.8N 39.0W this afternoon, 14.8N 41.7W
Sun morning, 15.8N 44.4W Sun afternoon, then weaken to a tropical
depression near 16.5N 46.8W Mon morning. Tropical Depression
Wilfred is expected to become a remnant low and move to 16.8N
48.6W Mon afternoon, then dissipate Tue morning. Long period
northeasterly swell from Major Hurricane Teddy, moving away from
the area in the Central Atlantic, will continue to impact tropical
Atlantic waters through early next week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha moved inland over Portugal overnight
and will have no more impact on Atlantic waters.

A nearly stationary 1012 mb low pressure center is located near
20N43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 300 nm to the SW of the center

A cold front has emerged off the SE US coast and stretches from
31N74W to 26N81W. Behind this front, strong NE winds are being
observed.

Category 3 Hurricane Teddy near 24.9N 58.2W 952 mb at
5 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts
135 kt. Teddy will move to 26.3N 59.5W this afternoon, 28.0N
61.2W Sun morning, 29.5N 62.2W Sun afternoon, 31.6N 61.9W Mon
morning, 35.2N 61.1W Mon afternoon, and 39.2N 61.3W Tue morning.
Swell generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas this weekend. A
strong cold front that moved off the coast of Georgia and the
Carolinas overnight will move SE and weaken, then stall early next
week from near Bermuda to the Florida Straits. Behind the front, near
gale force winds NE are anticipated across a broad area of
Atlantic waters N of 25N from later today through Mon. Tropical
Storm Wilfred in the tropical Atlantic is expected to weaken and
dissipate before reaching the area early next week.

$$
KONARIK
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