[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Sep 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm BETA, at 19/0300 UTC, is near 25.8N
92.2W. BETA is about 260 nm/480 km to the SW of the mouth of the
Mississippi River, and about 270 nm/500 km to the east of the
mouth of the Rio Grande. BETA is moving toward the NNE, or 030
degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to
60 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
225 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated to widely scattered moderate is
elsewhere between 86W and 96W. The hazards to the public and
property will be: storm surge, wind, rainfall, and surf. Please,
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.
Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local
weather office.

The center of Major Hurricane Teddy, at 19/0300 UTC, is near
24.0N 57.4W. TEDDY is moving NW, or 325 degrees, 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. The maximum sustained
wind speeds are 115 knots with gusts to 140 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the W
semicircle. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and
within 200 nm of the center in the S semicircle. TEDDY will be
approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday. Large swells, that
are being generated by Major Hurricane Teddy, are affecting the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas. The large
swells will spread to Bermuda and the eastern coast of the United
States of America by Saturday. It is likely for these swells to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please, read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more
details. Please, also consult bulletins and messages from your local
weather office.

The center of Tropical Storm Wilfred, at 19/0300 UTC, is near
12.8N 36.0W. WILFRED is moving W, or 285 degrees, 16 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate and isolated to widely
scattered strong is within 180 nm of the center in the W
semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

The remnant center of VICKY is a 1012 mb low pressure center
that is near 20N43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is within 320 nm to 390 nm to the SSW of the
center.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 20N16W, to 16N20W, and to 15N24W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 125 nm
to 400 nm of the monsoon trough between 14W and 18W. The monsoon
trough and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the activity of the
current tropical cyclones. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong also is from 05N to 10N between 18W and
28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm BETA is in the western half of the Gulf of
Mexico.  Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
225 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated to widely scattered moderate is
elsewhere between 86W and 96W. The hazards to the public and
property will be: storm surge, wind, rainfall, and surf. Please,
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.
Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local
weather office.

A cold front passes through the eastern coast of Florida along
28N, to the western coast of Florida along 27N, into the Gulf of
Mexico near 26N87W. No significant deep convective precipitation
is associated with the cold front.

Tropical Storm Beta near 25.5N 92.3W 996 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
NNE at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Beta
will move to 26.3N 92.2W Sat morning, 26.8N 92.8W Sat evening,
then strengthen to a hurricane near 26.8N 93.7W Sun morning.
Hurricane Beta will be near 27.0N 94.6W Sun evening, 27.4N 95.5W
Mon morning, and 27.8N 96.0W Mon evening. Beta will change
little in intensity as it moves near the Texas coast late Tue. A
cold front will move through the northeast Gulf of Mexico
through the weekend, bringing fresh to strong NE winds into
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Large swells, that are being generated by Major Hurricane Teddy, are
affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the
Bahamas. The large swells will spread to Bermuda and the eastern
coast of the United States of America by Saturday. It is likely for
these swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more
details. Please, also consult bulletins and messages from your local
weather office.

An upper level inverted trough is moving through the area that
extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to Guatemala. Broad upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in Cuba.
Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated to locally strong
covers the areas that extend from Honduras to 23N in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico between Honduras and the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The comparatively strongest
convective precipitation is occurring in parts of Belize and
northern Guatemala, and in the western sections of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A surface trough is along 15N62W, to a 1010 mb low pressure
center that is near 14N67W, to 14N72W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N
southward from 73W westward.

Tropical Storm Wilfred near 12.8N 36.0W 1008 mb at 11PM EDT
moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Wilfred will move to 13.5N 38.3W Sat morning, 14.5N 40.9W Sat
evening, 15.8N 43.8W Sun morning, 16.7N 46.3W Sun evening, then
weaken to a tropical depression near 17.3N 48.3W Mon morning.
Wilfred will become a remnant low and move to 17.9N 50.0W Mon
evening and will dissipate late Tue. Long period northeasterly swell
from Major Hurricane Teddy, moving away from the area in the Central
Atlantic Ocean, will continue to impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large swells, that are being generated by Major Hurricane Teddy, are
affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the
Bahamas. The large swells will spread to Bermuda and the eastern
coast of the United States of America by Saturday. It is likely for
these swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more
details. Please, also consult bulletins and messages from your local
weather office.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 40 nm to 120 nm to the E/ESE/SE of the 32N75W-to-28N
Florida east coast cold front.

A dissipating cold is along 32N/33N between 27W and 40W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 30N to the dissipating
front between 25W and 43W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward between 23W and 45W.

Major Hurricane Teddy is near 24.0N 57.4W 948 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt.
Teddy will move to 25.5N 58.6W Sat morning, 27.3N 60.4W
Sat evening, 29.0N 61.8W Sun morning, 30.8N 62.3W Sun evening,
33.5N 61.4W Mon morning, and 37.7N 61.1W Mon evening. Teddy will
become extratropical over the North Atlantic late Tue. The swell
that is being generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas this
weekend. A strong cold front will move off the southeastern
coast of the U.S.A. tonight. The front will weaken gradually,
and then become stationary from near Bermuda into southern
Florida early next week. Near gale-force northeast winds are
expected to the north of the Bahamas, from this weekend into early
next week, along with building seas. Tropical Storm Wilfred, in the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, is expected to weaken and dissipate before
reaching the area early next week.

$$
mt
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