[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171708
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Sep 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 19.3N 53.0W at 17/1500 UTC or
530 nm ENE of the Lesser Antilles moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
has risen to 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Some additional
strengthening is possible through tonight. A slow weakening trend
is expected to begin over the weekend. The hurricane is expected
to continue the same motion for the next few days. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is located within 180 NM of the
center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Vicky is centered near 21.4N 38.2W at
17/1500 UTC or 870 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving W at
12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed has dropped to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Vicky is expected to become a remnant low later today. A turn
toward the west-southwest is expected later today, and that motion
should continue through Friday. Scattered showers are located
within 60 NM of the center. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

A 1005 mb developing low pressure area in the SW Gulf of Mexico
is centered near 22N96W. Thunderstorm activity has continued to
increase and become better organized this morning with scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection occurring from 20N-25N
between 92W-98W. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more
conducive for development and, if this recent development trend
continues, a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form
later today. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly
northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday. The potential
for tropical cyclone formation is high over the next 48 hr. A Gale
Warning has been issued in association with this system. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

A tropical wave is near 27W, south of 19N, moving westward around
10 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the tropical
wave near 11N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 08N-12N between 20W-30W. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become
less favorable over the weekend.  The low is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days.
The potential for tropical cyclone formation is medium over both
48 hr and 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A small segment of the monsoon trough axis extends from the 1010
mb low near 21N27W to 07N36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is  noted from 08N-12N between 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See discussion of low in SW Gulf of Mexico in Special Features
section.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, a weak cold front extends from the Florida
panhandle near 30N86W west-southwestward to 28N95W, where it
transitions to a trough extending to the 1005 mb low at 22N96W.
Scattered showers exist within 60 NM of the front and trough.
W winds in the NE Gulf are moderate to strong due to the gradient
induced by Tropical Depression Sally centered inland over Alabama
and Georgia. Seas remain below 8 ft across the Gulf.

The existing cold front over the N Gulf should weaken and
dissipate by Fri. A new weak front will move into the northern
Gulf on Sat, followed by fresh to strong east to northeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak surface ridging to the north is inducing generally light to
gentle trades across the Caribbean today. An upper-low is helping
to promote isolated moderate convection from 12N-16N between 78W-
83W. Elsewhere scattered showers associated with a weak surface
trough are impacting the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rica as well as nearby waters from 15N-19N between 61W-
66W. The monsoon trough extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean
across Panama/Costa Rica to near 11N75W. No significant showers
are present with the trough.

A relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades through early next week, with fresh trades pulsing
over the south-central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See discussion of Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Depression Vicky, and
a tropical wave/low along 27W in the Special Features section.

Away from the above three features, the trades remain generally
gentle to moderate across the Atlantic. However, large swell of at
least 8 ft are being generated by Hurricane Teddy, which are
currently reaching the Leeward Islands the the NW coast of South
America to the south and west and to 28N to the north.

A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri night,
then become nearly stationary on Sun. Strong northeast winds are
expected north of the front, with building seas. The swell from
Teddy will spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend.
Large swell can cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult bulletins and messages from your local
weather office.

$$
Landsea
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