[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 170833
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the outflow of
Hurricane Teddy continues to rip across the circulation of Vicky.
These very hostile winds aloft are causing Vicky to struggle with
maintaining deep convection, which is quite sheared and limited to
the northeastern quadrant.  The latest satellite intensity
estimates range from 25 to 38 kt, and the initial intensity is held
at a possibly generous 35 kt.  Since the shear is expected to
remain strong, Vicky is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
later today, a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate entirely by
the weekend.

The weak storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt.  A turn to the
west is expected later today, followed by a west-southwest motion
after that until the cyclone dissipates in a couple of days.  The
track forecast lies near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 21.9N  36.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 21.6N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 21.0N  39.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1800Z 20.2N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z 19.4N  43.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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