[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 170552
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently downgraded Tropical Depression Sally, located inland
over southeastern Alabama, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the
central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage and
organization this morning. In addition, recent satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that the low has become better defined.
Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or so while the low meanders over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become
less favorable over the weekend.  The low is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far
northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east-northeast of
the Azores.  This system is forecast to move east-southeastward and
then northeastward at about 10 mph over the next day or two, and its
chances of acquiring some subtropical characteristics before it
reaches the coast of Portugal late Friday appear to be decreasing.
For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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