[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 170234
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

A layer of cirrus clouds are covering the center of Vicky, but those
clouds are associated with outflow from Hurricane Teddy.  A
combination of outflow from Teddy and an upper-level low to the
north of Vicky is causing very strong westerly winds across the top
of the struggling tropical storm. As a result, Vicky is producing
minimal convection that is displaced to the east of the center.
Recent ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds are still near
35 kt, but Vicky's wind field is becoming smaller and the system is
on the overall decline. There is no indication that the shear will
decrease and Vicky should weaken as a result. The NHC forecast calls
for Vicky to become a remnant low within 24 hours (if not sooner)
and dissipate in a few days.

Vicky is still heading generally westward. The tropical storm will
likely continue westward through tomorrow morning, and then turn
west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow after that for as
long as it lasts. There is little spread in the track guidance and
the NHC forecast is essentially the same as the multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 21.6N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 21.6N  37.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 21.0N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 20.2N  40.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 19.4N  42.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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