[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161751 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Sep 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Sally is inland at 30.6N 87.4W or 13 nm
WNW of Pensacola Florida, at 1500 UTC, moving NNE at 4 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Minimum
sea level pressure is 975 mb. A north-northeastward to
northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected later today and tonight. A faster northeastward motion
is forecast Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Sally will move across the extreme western Florida
panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, move
over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina
Thursday night. Sally is forecast to become a tropical
depression by Thursday morning. Due to its slow movement,
historic life-threatening flooding is possible along northern
coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong strong
convection is north of 27N between 81W and 89W. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is near 43.3N 45.2W
or 391 nm ESE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving ENE at 30 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.
Minimum sea level pressure is 973 mb. The post-tropical cyclone
is moving toward the east-northeast near 30 kt and this general
motion is expected through Thursday. Afterward, the cyclone is
forecast to slow down and turn toward the southeast and south
late Thursday and Friday. Scattered moderate convection is from
41N-49N between 42W-48W. Please read the last NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

The center of Hurricane Teddy at 1500 UTC is near 16.5N 49.7W or
673 nm E of the Lesser Antilles, moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Minimum sea
level pressure is 973mb. The NW general motion is forecast to
continue for the next few days. Additional strengthening is
expected over the next couple of days, and Teddy could become a
major hurricane by late tonight. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 09N-23N between 44W-55W. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for
more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Vicky at 1500 UTC is near 21.5N
34.7W or 690 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 8 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Minimum
sea level pressure is 1008 mb. A westward motion is expected to
continue through late Thursday. A west-southwestward motion is
forecast to begin by Friday and continue through dissipation.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Vicky is expected to
become a tropical depression Thursday, weaken to a remnant low
on Friday, and dissipate Saturday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at :
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

A tropical wave is along 24W, south of 15N, moving westward at
10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
07N-13N between 23W-28W. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form during the next few days while the system moves generally
westward. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details.

An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is
producing showers and thunderstorms that have become better
organized during the past several hours. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 19N-25N between 93W-98W.
Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over
the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. There is
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis remains in Africa. The monsoon trough
and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the activity of the current
tropical cyclones.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb low pressure is in the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico
near 22N94W. Further north, a stationary front is in the coastal
plains of Texas, passing through east Texas, continuing into
southern Texas.

Hurricane Sally just inland the coast near 30.6N 87.4W 975 mb at
11 AM EDT moving NNE at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt
gusts 85 kt. Sally will continue inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 31.3N 86.7W this evening. Sally will weaken further
to a a tropical depression near 32.4N 85.4W Thu morning with
maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt, then reach near 33.6N
83.1W Thu evening and weaken to a remnant low near 34.6N 80.2W
early Fri and dissipate late Sat. Elsewhere, an area of low
pressure over the SW Gulf will meander over the southern Gulf
during the next several days, with potential to become a
tropical cyclone. A weak front will move into the northern Gulf
on Sat followed by fresh northeast winds. Swells from Sally over
most of the eastern and central Gulf will slowly subside through
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough extends from Hispaniola into the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate convection
covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia to beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
south of 13N and west of 76W.

A relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades through late week, with fresh trades pulsing
over the south-central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Swell generated by Hurricane Paulette will continue to affect
the Atlantic Ocean, Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and sections
of the U. S. east coast today.

A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 27N53W to
21N56W the remnant of remnant of Rene. Isolated convection is
within 90 nm of the trough

A stationary front passes near Bermuda, and continues to the
coast of Georgia along 31N. Scattered moderate is within 75 nm
either side of the frontal boundary.

Hurricane Teddy near 16.5N 49.7W 973 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 100 kt. Teddy will
move to near 17.5N 50.8W this evening with maximum sustained
winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, and strengthen to a major hurricane as
it moves to near 19.0N 52.3W Thu morning with maximum sustained
winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 20.4N 53.8W Thu evening with
maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt and to near 21.9N
55.3W early Fri with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140
kt. Teddy is forecast to begin to weaken as it reaches near
23.5N 56.9W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 110 kt
gusts 135 kt, to near 25.1N 58.7W Sat morning with maximum
sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt, to near 28.3N 62.7W early
Sun with maximum sustained 95 kt gusts 115 kt. A strong front
will move over the northwest forecast waters Sat through Sun
followed by strong northeast winds. Large northeast swell will
impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through the end of the
weekend.

$$
Formosa
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