[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KTAE 161010
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-161815-

Hurricane Sally Local Statement Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL192020
610 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 /510 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Calhoun, Dale,
      Henry, Houston, Inland Gulf, and Jackson

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for South Walton
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calhoun, Central
      Walton, Coastal Bay, Coastal Gulf, Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry,
      Holmes, Houston, Inland Bay, Inland Gulf, Jackson, North
      Walton, and Washington

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 120 miles west of Panama City or about 160 miles west of
      Apalachicola
    - 30.1N 87.7W
    - Storm Intensity 105 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 20 degrees at 3 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Sally is expected to approach the northern Gulf Coast
this morning, and make landfall later today. Sally is then forecast to
move inland across southeastern Alabama tonight.

The greatest threat from Sally continues to be flash flooding. In
fact, there is the potential for catastrophic flooding across portions
of the Western Florida Panhandle into extreme Southeast Alabama, where
4 to 8 inches of rain has already occurred, with localized higher
amounts. Additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, and when
all is said and done by Thursday Night, isolated storm total amounts
around 20 inches are certainly possible. Rainfall amounts will decrease
east into Southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend.

A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of Walton County,
particularly closer to the coast, where there is a danger of life
threatening inundation above normally dry ground. For the remainder of
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coasts, minor storm surge flooding
with 1 to 3 feet of inundation above normally dry ground is expected.

As far as the wind threat is concerned, tropical storm force winds in
sustained and/or frequent gusts are increasingly likely inland from the
coast today, from portions of the Florida Panhandle into Southeast
Alabama, mainly to the west of the Chatahoochee and Apalachicola
Rivers. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended east this morning
to cover this entire area.

A few tornadoes are certainly possible as rain bands move ashore through
mid-week. In fact, a tornado watch is currently in effect for portions of
the Florida Panhandle, where multiple tornado warnings have been issued
overnight. Last but not least, high surf will continue to create very
dangerous conditions at area beaches, with life-threatening rip
currents through mid-week.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the portions of the Florida panhandle into Southeast Alabama. Remain
well guarded against life-threatening flood waters having possible
devastating impacts. If realized, these impacts include:

    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
portions of the Florida Big Bend and Southwestern Georgia. Remain well
guarded against life-threatening flood waters having possible limited
to extensive impacts.

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are still unfolding across
the Panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Remain well away from locally hazardous
surge having possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:

    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are still unfolding across
the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama. Remain well sheltered from
dangerous wind having possible significant impacts. If realized, these
impacts include:

    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Potential impacts from the main wind event could begin during this
afternoon across the western Big Bend of Florida and Southwestern Georgia.
Remain well sheltered from hazardous wind having possible limited
impacts.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the
Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend, Southeastern Alabama, and
Southwestern Georgia. Remain well braced against a tornado event
having possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:

    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
High surf is likely through Wednesday and a high risk of rip currents
is in effect through at least Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic information
on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 1130 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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