[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Sep 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Sally, at 16/0500 UTC, is near 29.8N
87.8W.  SALLY is about 56 nm/105 km to the SSE of Mobile in
Alabama, and about 52 nm/95 km to the SW of Pensacola in
Florida. SALLY is moving NNE, or 030 degrees, 2 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 85 knots with gusts to 105 knots.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach sections of the north
central U.S.A. coast of the Gulf of Mexico late tonight and
early on Wednesday. Historic life-threatening flooding is likely
along sections of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm of
the center in the NE semicircle, and within 45 nm of the center
in the SW semicircle. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 91W eastward, including in Florida.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Hurricane Paulette, at 16/0300 UTC, is near 40.7N
52.4W. PAULETTE is moving ENE, or 60 degrees, 24 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 85 knots with gusts to 105 knots.
PAULETTE is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone
in a day or so. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 300 nm of the center in the N semicircle.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Teddy, at 16/0300 UTC, is near
15.0N 48.3W. TEDDY is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 8 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 320 nm of
the center in the NE semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 400 nm of the center in the SW
semicircle. TEDDY is forecast to strengthen, and move
northwestward in the central and western sections of the
Atlantic Ocean, into the weekend. Please, read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for
more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Vicky, at 16/0300 UTC, is near
21.6N 33.1W. VICKY is moving WNW, or 290 degrees, 10 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 kt.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated to widely scattered strong is within 300 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

A tropical wave is along 21W/23W, from 15N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 720 nm to the
east of the tropical wave, and within 630 nm of the west of the
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system. It is likely for a tropical
depression  to form during the next few days, while the system
moves generally westward 10 to 15 mph. The chance for formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.
Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis remains in Africa. The monsoon trough
and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the activity of the current
tropical cyclones.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low pressure is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
near 21N95W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 150 nm of
the center in the NW semicircle. A stationary front is in the
coastal plains of Texas, passing through east Texas and
continuing to the Deep South of Texas.

Hurricane Sally centered near 29.5N 88.1W 979 mb at 5 PM EDT
moving N at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt.
Sally will move to 29.9N 88.1W late tonight with maximum
sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, then move inland and weaken
to a tropical storm near 30.6N 87.7W Wed afternoon with maximum
winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and continue inland to near 31.5N 86.9W
late Wed night and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.5N
85.3W Thu afternoon. Sally will continue to weaken as it moves
farther inland to near 33.1N 83.3W late Thu night and become a
remnant low well inland near 33.5N 81.0W Fri afternoon. Swells
from Sally will continue to affect most of the eastern and
central Gulf through the rest of the week. Weak low pressure
will persist in the southwest Gulf of Mexico through the next
few days, with a low chance of tropical development. A weak
front will move into the northern Gulf on Saturday, followed by
fresh northeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough extends from Hispaniola into the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward
from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 13N from 73W westward.

Tropical Storm Teddy near 15.0N 48.3W 992 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Teddy
will strengthen to a hurricane as it continues to move
toward the NW Wed morning. Teddy is forecast to strengthen and
become a major hurricane Fri night near 23.0N 56.2W. Teddy is
forecast to strengthen slightly as it tracks northwestward
across the central Atlantic through late Sat before it begins to
weaken. Large northeasterly swell will impact the central
Atlantic waters through the end of the weekend. A relatively
weak pressure pattern, elsewhere, will maintain gentle to
moderate trade winds, through late week, with fresh trade winds
pulsing in the south central Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Swells that are being generated by Hurricane Paulette will
continue to affect the Atlantic Ocean, Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, and sections of the east coast of the United States of
America, through Wednesday. It is likely for these swells to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult bulletins and messages from your local weather office.

A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 25N53W. This low pressure
center is the remnant low from RENE. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate is within 240 nm of the center in the
SW semicircle.

An upper level trough extends from 30N66W to Hispaniola. The
trough eventually continues into the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate within 150 nm to the east of
the trough, from 23N northward.

A cold front/stationary front passes through Bermuda, and it
continues beyond the coast of South Carolina along 31N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 28N
northward from 67W westward.

Tropical Storm Teddy near 15.0N 48.3W 992 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Teddy
will strengthen to a hurricane as it continues to move toward
the NW Wed morning. Teddy is forecast to strengthen and become a
major hurricane Fri night near 23.0N 56.2W. Teddy will begin to
weaken Sun afternoon and move to the north of the area late on
Sunday. It is possible that a front may approach the waters off
northeast Florida late on Saturday. Large northeasterly swell
will impact the tropical N Atlantic Ocean through the end of the
weekend.

$$
mt
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