[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 160235
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

At a glance, Teddy looks like a hurricane in conventional infrared
satellite imagery.  Two hooking convective bands are rotating
around the center, and cold convective tops are becoming more
symmetric within the circulation.  Objective intensity estimates
have still struggled to increase for some reason, but a blend of
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing Teddy's
intensity to 60 kt.  Overall, the environment looks generally
conducive for strengthening.  The main limiting factors would be
moderate southwesterly shear in 2-3 days, paired with a drier
environment with mid-level relative humidity dropping from 55-60
percent to about 40 percent in 3 days.  The updated NHC intensity
forecast has not been changed significantly from the previous
prediction mainly to ensure continuity.  Nearly all of the
intensity models are below this forecast, and downward intensity
adjustments could be required in later forecasts if Teddy doesn't
show sure signs of significant intensification.

Teddy has turned toward the northwest and slowed down a bit with an
initial motion of 305/8 kt.  A mid-tropospheric high pressure area
is expected to be nearly stationary over the central Atlantic for
the entire forecast period, which is likely to keep Teddy on a
constant northwestward heading with only small fluctuations in
forward speed.  If I was to look for any outlier among the
tightly clustered track guidance, it would be the ECMWF, which is
slightly off to the west of the main pack of models.  The NHC track
forecast is just a little to the west of the TVCA multi-model
consensus aid in deference to the ECMWF, and it's fairly close to
the latest HCCA solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 15.0N  48.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 16.0N  49.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 17.3N  50.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 18.8N  52.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 20.2N  53.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 21.6N  54.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 23.0N  56.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 26.5N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 29.5N  62.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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