[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 152033
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Vicky continues to be blasted by around 50 kt of westerly shear,
with deep convection being continually removed from the center.
Overall the coverage and intensity of the deep convection has
decreased since this morning, and the initial intensity has been set
to 40 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates (30-35 kt)
and SATCON (45 kt). The high shear is expected to persist, and that
in combination with marginal SSTs should result in weakening, and
Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in around 36 hours, with
dissipation expected in about 3 days. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to HCCA and the IVCN consensus aids.

The initial motion estimate is a bit faster toward the
west-northwest or 300/10. Vicky should continue west-northwestward
for the next 12 to 24 hours and then turn westward in the low-level
flow before dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous one, near the middle of the guidance envelope, and has
been adjusted a bit slower toward the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 21.2N  32.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 21.6N  33.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 22.1N  35.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 22.4N  37.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z 22.4N  38.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0600Z 22.2N  40.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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