[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sep 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Sally is centered near 29.1N 88.2W at 15/1500 UTC or
48 nm E of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving NW at 2
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are
currently to 24 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted N of 28N between 83W-90W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted in bands elsewhere N of 23N E of 87W.
A slow north-northwestward to northward motion is expected this
afternoon, followed by a slow northward to north-northeastward
motion tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Sally will pass near the coast of southeastern
Louisiana today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or Wednesday. Although little change in
strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still
expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore
along the north-central Gulf coast. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

Hurricane Paulette is centered near 38.3N 57.9W at 15/1500 UTC
or 495 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 25 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 210 nm of the center. A faster motion
toward the east-northeast is expected through Thursday.
Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the
east-southeast and south-southeast late Thursday and Friday.
Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday as the cyclone
undergoes extratropical transition.  Paulette should complete
its transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Teddy is centered near 14.0N 47.0W at 15/1500 UTC
or 834 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving WNW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 07N-18N between 41W-53W. Teddy
is moving toward the west-northwest, and a west-northwest to
northwest track is anticipated during the next few days.
Strengthening is forecast for the next several days, and Teddy
is likely to become a hurricane later today or tonight, and
could reach major hurricane strength in a few days. Large
swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Vicky is centered near 20.6N 31.0W at 15/1500 UTC
or 486 nm NW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 19N-24N between 27W-31W. A
turn toward the west-northwest is expected within the next day
or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Weakening is forecast
due to strong upper-level winds during the next 48 hours, and
Vicky is likely to degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday
night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

A tropical wave is off the W coast of Africa with axis along
20W/21W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-12N between 20W-25W. A 1010 mb low is
embedded on the wave axis near 09N21W. A tropical depression
is likely to form during the next few days. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W to 17N20W. No significant convection is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Sally.

Elsewhere, a 1011 mb surface low is centered in the west Gulf
near 22N95W. A surface trough extends from 25N95W to the low to
19N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
21N-26N between 94W-98W. This area has a low chance of developing
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh NW-N winds west of the trough,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere outside of Sally.

Hurricane Sally is centered near 29.1N 88.2W 983 mb at
11 AM EDT moving NW at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts
90 kt. Sally will move to near 29.6N 88.2W this evening, near
30.2N 88.1W Wed morning, with maximum sustained winds 70 kt
gusts 85 kt, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm
near 31.0N 87.6W Wed evening. Sally will continue to weaken to
weaken as it reaches near 31.9N 86.6W early Thu and weaken
further to a a tropical depression near 32.6N 85.2W Thu evening.
Sally will become a remnant low well inland near 33.0N 83.6W Fri
morning. Elsewhere weak low pressure will persist over the
southwest Gulf through Thu with a low chance of tropical
development. Looking ahead, a weak front will move into the
northern Gulf late on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Teddy which is forecast to move within 240 nm NE of the
Leeward Islands by Fri.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low centered well north of Hispaniola
is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the island
and adjacent waters. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across the basin, with moderate to fresh winds
noted within 90 nm north of the Colombian/Venezuelan coastline.
Seas are mainly 2-4 ft W of 74W, and 3-5 ft E of 74W.
Tropical Storm Teddy near 14.0N 47.0W 999 mb at 11 AM
EDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65
kt. Teddy will strengthen to a hurricane near 14.9N 48.2W this
evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to
near 16.1N 49.5W Wed morning, to near 17.4N 50.8W Wed evening,
with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 18.9N
52.3W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt
and continue to strengthen as it reaches to near 20.3N 53.6W Thu
evening with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt. Teddy
is forecast to continue to strengthen as it tracks northwestward
across the central Atlantic through late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane
Paulette, centered N of 32N, Tropical Storm Teddy, and Tropical
Storm Vicky.

Swells generated by Paulette are affecting the Greater Antilles,
the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low is centered near 26N68W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across Hispaniola
and the west Atlantic north of 21N between 64W-67W. To the east,
the remnants of Rene are analyzed as a 1016 mb low centered near
26N51W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm to the SE of the
low center. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin outside of the tropical systems.

T.S. Teddy is expected strengthen to a hurricane before reaches
the waters well northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Fri,
then continue to the NNE east of 65W through late Sat. T.S.
Vicky will continue moving west while weakening. A front may
approach the waters off northeast Florida by late Sat.

$$
Formosa
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