[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 141454
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft observed a
peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 93 kt and a SFMR wind of 80 kt 25
miles to the northeast of the center of the 35 mile wide eye.  The
central pressure, also reported by the aircraft, has fallen to 970
mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85
kt for this advisory.

Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from
Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic.
Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the
next 24 hours.  At the 48 hour forecast period, weakening will
commence as the cyclone becomes involved with a mid-latitude
shortwave trough approaching from the Canadian Maritimes.  Paulette
should begin losing its tropical characteristics toward the end of
the week. The peak intensity is increased a little at the 24 hour
period to agree with the HCCA and IVCN intensity multi-models and
follows these aids through the remaining portion of the forecast
period.

The initial motion estimate is 355/12 kt.  Paulette will begin
accelerating northeastward by Tuesday morning then turn
east-northeastward with a further increased in forward motion early
Wednesday morning.  A slower eastward to southeastward motion is
forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper
tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic.  The NHC
forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond the 36
hour period and basically lies down the middle of the tightly
clustered deterministic and regional model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda
today, however, hurricane and tropical storm conditions, storm
surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this
afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 33.4N  64.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 35.1N  63.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 37.5N  59.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 40.1N  54.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 42.9N  47.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 45.5N  41.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 47.1N  36.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 45.5N  33.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 40.1N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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