[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 141016
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141830-

Tropical Storm Sally Local Statement Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL192020
516 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**Tropical Storm Sally moving west northwest and expected to
gradually intensify**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Baldwin Inland
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal,
      Mobile Central, and Mobile Coastal
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Escambia Coastal,
      Escambia Inland, George, Greene, Mobile Inland, Okaloosa
      Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Perry, Santa Rosa Coastal, Santa Rosa
      Inland, Stone, Washington, and Wayne

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 170 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 150 miles
      south of Pensacola FL
    - 28.3N 87.3W
    - Storm Intensity 60 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 285 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 4:00 AM CDT, Tropical Storm Sally continues to move west
northwestward across the north central Gulf of Mexico and should
gradually intensify today. Sally is expected to become a hurricane
tonight and move to a position near the mouth of the Mississippi river
by late tonight. Sally should slow its forward speed by this time and
make a turn towards the north likely reaching the coastline somewhere
between far southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi/Alabama border by
Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning.

The primary threat with Sally should be very heavy rainfall and the
potential for life threatening inland and storm surge flooding.
Potentially historic flash flooding will be possible as the storm
slows as it crosses the coast and moves slowly northeastward after
landfall. This system will bring an extended period of heavy rains
with amounts of 8 to 16 inches expected, with locally higher amounts
up to 25 inches across the western Florida panhandle, southeast
Mississippi and portions of southwest Alabama.

A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for coastal Alabama, including
Mobile Bay, where water levels of 4 to 6 feet above dry ground is
possible. Further to the east, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect with water levels of 2 to 4 feet above dry ground expected
along the western Florida panhandle. This area may be upgraded to a
Storm Surge Warning in later advisories. In addition, rough surf and
dangerous rip currents are expected along the beaches with dangerous
wave run up.

Hurricane force wind gusts are possible along the immediate coastlines
of Alabama, and Tropical Storm force winds are likely across the
western Florida panhandle, southeast Mississippi and portions of
southwest Alabama.

A few tornadoes are also possible across the western Florida
panhandle, southwest and south central Alabama and southeast
Mississippi. This threat should develop late this afternoon and
persist through Wednesday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
portions of the western Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. In mountain
      areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while increasing
      susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across south central Alabama and the remainder of the
western Florida Panhandle.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across extreme southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest
Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across interior southeast Mississippi, interior
southwest Alabama, south central Alabama, and the western Florida
Panhandle.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across southeast Mississippi, southwest and south central Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to
get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of
time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose items
and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 11 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

JLH
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