[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 140246
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The eye of Paulette is steadily nearing Bermuda. Although it has
appeared slightly ragged at times in IR imagery, radar imagery from
Bermuda and the NOAA P3 show that the eye and eyewall of Paulette
are very well defined in all quadrants but the southwest. The NOAA
hurricane hunter plane measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt
(which adjust to 80 kt at the surface) and SFMR winds of 70 kt.
Taking an average of those supports the initial intensity of 75 kt.
The minimum pressure measured by the NOAA aircraft in its last pass
through the eye was 976 mb.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for Paulette are very
similar to the last advisory. Given its improved structure over the
past day or so and its favorable upper-air environment, some
additional strengthening appears likely as Paulette approaches
Bermuda during the next few hours. Further intensification is
possible after the hurricane accelerates northeastward away from
Bermuda and Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane
strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is
expected as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins
to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is
generally just above the intensity consensus but is within the
tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times.

Confidence in the track forecast is quite high and the models are in
excellent agreement on Paulette's future for the next few days. The
hurricane will approach Bermuda and turn northward tomorrow, then
accelerate northeastward through the middle of the week. A slower
eastward or even southeastward motion is possible by Friday when a
large cut-off mid- to upper-level low over the eastern Atlantic is
forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will approach Bermuda early Monday and
hurricane conditions are expected to begin on the island within the
next few hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,
and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into Monday afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 31.4N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 32.8N  64.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 34.9N  63.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 37.1N  60.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 39.3N  55.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 41.6N  49.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 43.8N  44.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 46.0N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 43.5N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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