[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 131502
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Sporadic small areas of convection continue to fire off around the
circulation of Rene, only to dissipate shortly thereafter. A recent
ASCAT overpass showed an area of 20 to 25 kt winds in the eastern
semicircle. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 25 kt. The
dry environment surrounding Rene will only get drier over the next
couple of days. That, along with increasing subsidence over the
cyclone should eventually cause Rene to become a remnant low. There
is no change to the previous forecast intensity or timing of the
system becoming a remnant low, which is consistent with the global
models.

Rene is beginning to slow down as a ridge starts to build to the
north and northwest of the cyclone. This slowing trend should
continue through tonight. Late Monday through Tuesday, a turn to the
west then southwest should occur as whatever remains of the system
becomes steered by the larger circulation of Tropical Depression
Twenty to its southwest. There is little change to the previous
track forecast, and the latest NHC forecast lies near the various
multi-model track consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 26.8N  47.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 27.5N  48.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 27.6N  48.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 27.3N  49.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1200Z 26.7N  50.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/0000Z 26.1N  51.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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