[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 130234
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Satellite images indicate that a band of convection has recently
increased on the western side of the circulation, otherwise the
center remains mostly exposed.  The initial wind speed is reduced to
25 kt based on scatterometer data.  The small cyclone is likely to
gradually spin down due to persistent moderate shear and a fairly
dry environment.  The hostile conditions are not likely to change
too much, so Rene is forecast to lose all convection in a day or two
and become a remnant low.  The new NHC intensity forecast is lower
than the previous one due to the weaker initial intensity and
follows the latest global model consensus.

The depression is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. A blocking
ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest or
Rene, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward and
west-southwestward early next week. The guidance is similar to the
previous package, and no significant track changes were made to the
official NHC forecast. The forecast still might hold onto the
circulation too long, and the remnant low could dissipate into a
trough of low pressure sooner than indicated below.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 25.3N  46.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 26.4N  47.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 27.3N  48.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 27.4N  48.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0000Z 27.2N  49.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/1200Z 26.5N  50.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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