[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Sep 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Nineteen, at 12/1500 UTC, is
near 25.6N 81.5W, about 35 nm SSE of Naples, Florida and is
moving W at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. The maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 200
nm of the southern semicircle. T.D. Nineteen will turn toward the
west-northwest later today. A west-northwestward or
northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is then
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern
Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and then move over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory
at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Paulette, at 12/1500 UTC, is near
27.5N 57.2W, about 490 nm SE of Bermuda, and is moving NW at 13
kt. The estimated central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum
sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are up to 24
ft near the center with 12 ft seas extending 270 nm in the NE
quadrant, 150 nm in the SE quadrant, 270 nm in the SW quadrant,
and 240 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is
within 190 nm in the NW quadrant and isolated thunderstorms are
within 200 nm in the NE quadrant. Paulette is expected to
continue to move northwest or west-northwest through late Sunday.
A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is
forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday
night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette
will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more
details.

Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Rene, at 12/1500 UTC, is
near 23.2N 44.4W, about 1200 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands
and 1000 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 11
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The
maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are
up to 13 ft near the center with 12 ft seas extending 30 nm in
the NE quadrant and 30 nm in the NW quadrant. Showers are within
150 nm in the NW quadrant. T.D. Rene will continue moving NW
through tonight. A slower northwest to north-northwest motion is
expected on Sunday and Monday. A turn to the west-southwest is
expected to occur by Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more
details.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with an axis along 32W
southward from 19N is moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1007 mb low is
located along the wave near 11N32W. Scattered moderate convection
is west of the wave from 10N-15N between 33W-37W. Development of
this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected
to form within the next couple of days while the system moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. The chance of formation during the next 48
hours is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic with an axis along 23W
southward from 20N is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted west of the wave from 13N-
17N between 23W-27W. This convection is impacting the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions support some development for
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week
while the system moves slowly westward. By mid-week, upper-level
winds could become less conducive for development. The chance of
development during the next 48 hours is low.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Mauritania near 18N16W
to 14N25W to 10N38W. Outside of the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered showers are within 275 nm south of
the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information on
T.D. Nineteen.

At 1500 UTC, a surface trough located in the north-central Gulf
of Mexico was analyzed from 29N93W to 24N89W. Scattered
thunderstorms are associated with this trough from 25N-30N
between 85W-93W. This trough will have the possibility of some
slow development of this system while it moves westward and then
southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico
through the middle of next week. There is a low chance of
development within the next 48 hours.

A stationary front continues to be draped across the western
Gulf, from the TX/LA border near 30N94W to southern Mexico near
19N95W. Scattered thunderstorms are associated with this front
from 18N-27N between 93W-97W. Moderate winds are noted in the
northern Gulf and in the western Gulf behind the front. Light to
gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas range 2-4 ft.

Tropical Depression Nineteen will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 26.2N 83.0W this evening, move to 27.1N 84.8W Sun morning,
28.0N 86.4W Sun evening, and 28.7N 87.6W Mon morning. Nineteen
will strengthen to a hurricane near 29.3N 88.5W Mon evening and
be near 29.8N 89.1W Tue morning. Nineteen will weaken to a
tropical storm while moving inland over portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in
the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough from 09N-13N between
75W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms are in the Gulf of Honduras.
Light to gentle trades are noted across the basin with moderate
to fresh winds north of Colombia. Seas range 2-4 ft.

Tropical Storm Paulette will continue to move north away from
the area this weekend but large swell associated with Paulette
will affect the Atlantic and Caribbean Passages this weekend.
Rene has weakened to a tropical depression this morning well east
of the area. Tropical Depression Rene is not expected to
strengthen but could approach areas north and east of the Leeward
Islands toward the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information on
Paulette and Rene.

High pressure continues to dominate most of the basin outside of
the tropical systems. Isolated thunderstorms are moving eastward
toward the Lesser Antilles. Showers are also moving across the
Canary Islands. Light to gentle winds are noted across the basin,
with fresh to strong winds off the Western Sahara coast. Seas
range 4-8 ft.

Tropical Storm Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane near
28.5N 59.1W this evening, move to 29.5N 61.4W Sun morning, 30.8N
63.6W Sun evening, 32.4N 64.8W Mon morning, 34.2N 64.2W Mon
evening, and 35.8N 61.5W Tue morning. Large swell associated with
Paulette will spread westward across the offshore waters and
continue to build seas this weekend into early next week.
Tropical Depression Nineteen has now moved west of the area into
the Gulf of Mexico this morning and its impacts will continue to
move away from the area into early next week.

$$
AReinhart
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