[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 121517
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ142>147-155>160-122330-

Tropical Depression Nineteen Local Statement Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL192020
1117 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 /1017 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19 EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Bay, Coastal
      Franklin, Coastal Gulf, and South Walton

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 400 miles southeast of Panama City or about 360 miles
      southeast of Apalachicola
    - 25.6N 81.5W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement West or 280 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Depression Nine is expected to enter the eastern Gulf of
Mexico later today and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as
it pushes across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The current track
keeps the storm's center in the northeast Gulf and does not forecast a
landfall across North Florida. However, the storm is expected to slow
as it moves through the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This will result in
a multi-day heavy rainfall threat across much of the region, with the
greatest potential for flash flooding south of Interstate 10 in the
Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend. Rainfall totals of 5 to
8 inches are possible across the Florida Panhandle with this system,
with locally higher amounts possible. The potential for tropical storm
force winds and gusts exists but is forecast to remain primarily
confined to the immediate Panhandle and western Big Bend coasts. Like
with most tropical systems, the potential for a few tornadoes cannot
be ruled out across North Florida. The threat for impactful storm
surge appears low at this time. Expect the bulk of the aforementioned
threats to occur in the Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night
timeframe.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the Panhandle and western Big Bend coasts and adjacent
counties. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the interior Panhandle, eastern Big Bend of
Florida, southeast Alabama, and extreme southern Georgia.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the
immediate Panhandle and western Big Bend coasts. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the
entire Florida Panhandle and coastal counties across the Big Bend of
Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* SURGE:
Minor storm surge flooding will be possible for the coastal Panhandle
and Apalachee Bay east of the Aucilla River. Little to no impacts are
anticipated elsewhere at this time.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the Gulf of Mexico or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or
poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5 PM ET, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
MM
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