[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Sep 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Nineteen, at 12/0600 UTC, is
near 25.7N 80.2W. NINETEEN is about 10 nm/15 km to the SSE of
Miami Florida. NINETEEN is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 07 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
NINETEEN is forecast to move WNW, across Florida, during the day
on Saturday. It is forecast to reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico
during the afternoon hours of Saturday. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the S
quadrant. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong is in the Atlantic Ocean, within 240 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Paulette, at 12/0300 UTC, is near
25.8N 54.8W. PAULETTE is about 650 nm/1210 km to the SE of
Bermuda. PAULETTE is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 14 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 210 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong is elsewhere within 330 nm of the
center in the N semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Rene, at 12/0300 UTC, is near 21.4N
42.4W. RENE is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 12 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated to widely scattered strong is within 160 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

A tropical wave is along 30W, from 20N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1008 mb low pressure center is along
the tropical wave near 11.5N. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 600 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from 05N to 13N. A tropical depression is expected
to form within the next couple of days, while the system moves
generally westward 15 to 20 mph, across the eastern and central
sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation
during the next 48 hours is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 21N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The wave passes through
parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and El Salvador, and
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is in the Yucatan Peninsula within 150 nm to the
W of the tropical wave, and in NW Guatemala. Scattered to
numerous strong also is within 120 nm to the east of the
tropical wave, in parts of Central America, from 10N to 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the central coastal sections
of Mauritania near 18N16W, to 14N20W, to 12Nthe north of the
border with Senegal, and then to 14N20W and 12N27W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 12N to 16N between 20W and 25W. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and widely scattered strong is within 150 nm
on either side of the line that runs from 08N36W to 12N45W to
13N56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is from 26N to 27N
between 93W and 94W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. A stationary front passes
through the SW corner of Louisiana, to 27N95W in the western
Gulf of Mexico. The stationary front continues southward, along
95W, to 19N. The stationary front continues westward, into
Mexico, to 20N100W, and then northwestward in Mexico to 30N108W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 27N southward from 92W westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
to the east of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the
Yucatan Channel.

Tropical Depression Nineteen centered near 25.7N 79.8W 1007 mb
at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Nineteen will move inland to 26.0N 81.0W
Sat morning, strengthen to a tropical storm in the SE Gulf near
26.8N 82.9W Sat evening, 27.9N 84.6W Sun morning, 28.8N 85.9W
Sun evening, 29.3N 86.9W Mon morning, and 29.7N 87.7W Mon
evening.
Nineteen will move inland to 30.2N 89.5W late Tue. Fresh
northerly winds, behind a stationary front that is in the
western Gulf of Mexico, will weaken overnight. A surface trough
that is in the central Gulf of Mexico will drift westward during
the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 87W/88W from 21N southward, moving W 10
to 15 knots. The wave passes through parts of the Yucatan
Peninsula, Honduras, and El Salvador, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in
the Yucatan Peninsula within 150 nm to the W of the tropical
wave, and in NW Guatemala. Scattered to numerous strong also is
within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave, in parts of
Central America, from 10N to 15N.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 120 nm to
the SSW of Jamaica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong in clusters is in the coastal waters of the SW
part of the Dominican Republic, and in southern Haiti. Isolated
moderate covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward
from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W in northern Colombia, to
the Caribbean Sea coast of Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward
from 70W westward. Scattered moderate to strong covers Venezuela
and Colombia from 08N to 10N between 72W and 74W, and in the
area of the border of Colombia and Panama, and in the Gulf of
Uraba.

Tropical Storm Paulette centered near 25.8N 54.8W 987 mb at 11
PM EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts
75 kt. Large swell associated with Paulette will affect the
Atlantic and Caribbean Passages this weekend. A tropical wave in
the W Caribbean will exit the basin overnight. Low pressure
associated with a strong tropical wave may approach the Tropical
N Atlantic waters during the middle of the next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Paulette near 25.8N 54.8W 987 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt.
Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane near 27.1N 56.5W
Sat morning, move to 28.5N 58.8W Sat evening, 29.6N 61.2W Sun
morning, 30.7N 63.7W Sun evening, move north of the area to
32.1N 65.1W Mon morning, and 33.8N 65.0W Mon evening. Tropical
Depression Nineteen centered near 25.7N 79.8W 1007 mb at 11 PM
EDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40
kt. Nineteen will move inland to 26.0N 81.0W Sat morning. Large
swell associated with Paulette will spread eastward across the
offshore waters, and continue to build seas from this weekend
into early next week.

$$
mt
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